END NOTES

[1] Tab A provides acronyms, abbreviations, and a glossary.

[2] Lennox, Ducan, "Inside the R-17 'Scud B' Missile," Jane's Intelligence Review, July 1991, p. 302; University of Michigan Computer Club, "Soviet Operational Missiles and Rockets," web site: www.umcc.edu (as of July 27, 1999).

[3] Carus, Seth W. and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Iraq's Al-Husayn Missile Programme," Jane's' Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1990, p. 204.

[4] Jane's Information Group, "Strategic Delivery Systems," Jane's Intelligence Review, June 1995, p. 18; Carus, Seth W. and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Iraq's Al-Husayn Missile Programme," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, June 1990, p. 242-244.

[5] Based on Central Intelligence Agency Nonproliferation Center fact sheet, "The Russian Scud B," undated.

[6] Lennox, Ducan, "Inside the R-17 'Scud B' Missile," Jane's Intelligence Review, July 1991, p. 302, 304; Central Intelligence Agency memorandum, subject "Consolidated SCUD Comments," April 18, 2000, p. 3.

[7] Jane's Information Group, "Al Hussein," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems 1995-96, September 16, 1996.

[8] Central Intelligence Agency, "IZ Chemical and Biological Warhead Threat," undated.

[9] Lenhart, Warren W. and Todd Masse, "Persian Gulf War: Iraqi Scud Ballistic Missile Systems," Congressional Research Service report to Congress, February 14, 1991, p. CRS-2, CRS-5-7; Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Forces Guide, "al-Abbas," web site: www.fas.org (as of May 13, 1999); Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "National Briefings: Iraq," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of July 29, 1999); Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "Iraq's Ballistic Missile Capabilities," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of July 29, 1999); Department of Defense message, subject "IIR 2 340 2823 91/Information on Mines, Missiles and NBC Weapons," 011735Z Mar 91; Cordesman, Anthony H., "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East," Brassey's, London, 1991, p. 40, 45-46; Defense Intelligence Agency, "Daily Training Schedule at Mukhabarat," undated; Carus, Seth W. and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Iraq's Al-Husayn Missile Programme," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1990, p. 205; Jane's Information Group, "Al Hussein," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems 1995-96, September 16, 1996; Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East," web site: cns.miis.edu (as of April 24, 2000).

[10] Circular error probable. See glossary at Tab A.

[11] Defense Intelligence Agency, Report, Subject:  "Reference Task OICC 4139, Orange Cloud Assessment," redacted, February 4, 1991.

[12] Central Intelligence Agency Nonproliferation Center fact sheet, "The Russian Scud B," undated; Federation of American Scientists, "UNSCOM and Iraqi Missiles," web site: www.fas.org (as of May 13, 1999).

[13] Carus, Seth W. and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Iraq's Al-Husayn Missile Programme," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1990, p. 204-205.

[14] Jane's Information Group, "Al Hussein," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems 1995-96, September 16, 1996.

[15] Zaloga, Steven, "Ballistic Missiles in the Third World," International Defense Review, November 1988, p. 1427; Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "1990: The Iraqi Scud Threat," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of September 24, 1997).

[16] Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraq and the Gulf War, 1990-91," undated.

[17] Defense Intelligence Agency, "Chemical and Biological Warfare in the Kuwait Theater of Operations; Iraq's Capability and Posturing," undated.

[18] Central Intelligence Agency, "Report on Iraqi Chemical/Nuclear Warhead Systems," 1991.

[19] Defense Intelligence Agency, "Scud Chemical Agent Coverage Patterns - Aug 90," August 1990.

[20] Kagan, Mark H., "Iraq's Case: The International Missile Trade and Proliferation," The International Missile Bazaar: The New Suppliers' Network, William C. Potter and Harlan W. Jencks, eds., Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1994, p. 193-194.

[21] Defense Intelligence Agency, "Daily Training Schedule at Mukhabarat," undated; United Nations Special Commission, "UNSCOM's Comprehensive Review," Annex C, Status of Verification of Iraq's Biological Warfare Programme, January 29, 1999, web site: www.un.org (as of April 25, 2000).

[22] Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraq CW," undated.

[23] Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraq as a Military Adversary," November 1990.

[24] 82nd Airborne Division, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 18, 1991.

[25] VII Corps, "Defense of the Wadi Al Batin," p. 91.

[26] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Middle East Trip Provides Useful Information Exchange," January 27, 1998.

[27] VII Corps, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 20, 1991.

[28] 82nd Airborne Division intelligence staff, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," January 21, 1991.

[29] Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Security Assessment 91A-91, "Iraq-Kuwait: Situation Update," January 27, 1991.

[30] Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraqi Capabilities and Intentions to Use Chemical Weapons," undated.

[31] Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Security Assessment 181A-91, "Iraq-Kuwait: Situation Update," January 27, 1991.

[32] Smith, R. Jeffrey, "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Still a Threat to Ground Troops, U.S. Says," The Washington Post, February 19, 1991, p. 7.

[33] Central Intelligence Agency, "Iraqi Special Weapons Capabilities," January 1991.

[34] Defense Intelligence Agency, "Effects of Patriot Interception on SCUD Warhead," January 23, 1991.

[35] "No Chem Scuds?" Armed Forces Journal International, March 1991, p. 23.

[36] Tactical Air Command, "CENTAF-Rear DISUM 184," 062300Z Mar 91.

[37] Defense Intelligence Agency message, subject "IIR 6 284 0008 94/Detection of Chemical Agents By Czechoslovak Unit during Desert Storm, Part III," 141325Z Oct 93.

[38] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Middle East Trip Provides Useful Information Exchange," January 27, 1998.

[39] United Nations Special Commission, "UNSCOM's Comprehensive Review," Annex A, Status of the Material Balances in the Missile Area, and cover letter, January 25, 1999, web site: www.un.org (as of March 10, 2000).

[40] Federation of American Scientists, "UNSCOM and Iraqi Missiles," web site: www.fas.org (as of May 13, 1999); Defense Intelligence Agency electronic mail, subject: "Preliminary Response on Information Paper Entitled 'Iraq's SCUD Ballistic Missiles (U),'" April 17, 2000 (S).

[41] Department of State, "Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs," United States Government white paper, February 13, 1998.

[42] Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "Devil's Brews Briefings: Iraq," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of September 9, 1997); Central Intelligence Agency, "Why WMD were Withheld," March 1991.

[43] Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA Report on Intelligence Related to Gulf War Illnesses," August 2, 1996.

[44] Central Intelligence Agency, "Review of NESA Files," February 21, 1996; Central Intelligence Agency, "Why WMD were Withheld," March 1991.

[45] Scud firing areas based on Gulf War Air Power Survey, Volume II, Part II, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 400.

[46] Readers are cautioned to note the difference in the time zones used in cited references, hyperlinked in the online version, and to add three hours to "Z times" to track with the convention used in this paper. Also note that such conversions in the middle of the night (when many of the Scuds flew) can change the date as well as the time. For example, 2300Z (11:00 PM in London) on February 4th equals 0200C (2:00 AM in the KTO) on February 5th.

[47] Graph based on summaries for each geographic area in section V.

[48] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia," (Case Narrative) , web site www.gulflink.osd.mil/aljubayl/, August 13, 1997, p. 2.

[49] Department of Defense Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 165.

[50] Defense Special Missile and Astronautics Center message, subject "Mideast Conflict: Iraqi SRBM Launch Summary through 26 February 1991," 271603Z Feb 91.

[51] United Nations Special Commission, "UNSCOM's Comprehensive Review," Annex A, Status of the Material Balances in the Missile area, and cover letter, January 25, 1999, web site: www.un.org (as of March 10, 2000).

[52] Memorandum from Air Force Space Command vice commander to Headquarters, United States Space Command, Subject: "Declassification/Security Review Request from OSD," December 9, 1998.

[53] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 42.

[54] Watson, Bruce W., "Iraqi Scud Launches During the Gulf War," Appendix C, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, George Watson and Cyr Tsouras, London, Greenhill Books, 1991, p. 225-226.

[55] Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225.

[56] Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Security Assessment 181A-91, "Iraq-Kuwait: Situation Update," February 23, 1991; Central Intelligence Agency, "Chronology of Iraqi CW Development;" Jane's Information Group, "Al Hussein," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems 1995-96, September 16, 1996.

[57] Postol, Theodore A., "Lessons of the Gulf War Experience with Patriot," International Security, winter 1991/92, p. 133.

[58] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48.

[59] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; 82nd Airborne Division, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 21, 1991; unidentified United States Army division air defense message form, 202157Z Jan 91; XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," January 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 47; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; Lead Sheet #13099, Interview of Marine aviation technician supervisor, December 19, 1997.

[60] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 47; 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, "11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade S2's Chronology of Events," p. 10; 82nd Airborne Division, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 21, 1991.

[61] Unidentified United States Army corps daily summary for January 23, 1991; 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events;" unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; VII Corps, "Daily Log," January 22, 1991; Lead Sheet #21097, Interview of B Company, 702nd Transportation Battalion soldier, January 14, 1999; United States commander in chief Central Command message, subject: "SITREP/USCINCCENT/168/Jan," 242115Z Jan 91; unidentified United States Army operations staff air defense element message, subject "Scud Launch," January 23, 1991.

[62] XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," January 1991; United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," January 26, 1991; unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 26, 1991; 1st Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group, "1st EOD Group Daily Journal," January 25, 1991.

[63] XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," February, 1991; VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA."

[64] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, "The United States Navy in 'Desert Shield'/'Desert Storm," May 15, 1991; VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA;" VII Corps, "Daily Log, September 3, 1991.

[65] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," February 1991; unidentified United States Army air defense element message form, February 25, 1991.

[66] Watson, Bruce W., "Iraqi Scud Launches During the Gulf War," Appendix C, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, George Watson and Cyr Tsouras, London, Greenhill Books, 1991, p. 224 225; unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 47.

[67] United States Central Command, "G-3 Spot Report," January 20, 1991.

[68] The Air Force element did not have a M8A1 Chemical Agent Alarm go off and checked using Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) and M256A1 Chemical Agent Detection Kit. 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events."

[69] Lead Sheet #15828, Interview of 3rd Armored Division soldier, April 9, 1998, p. 1.

[70] Lead Sheet #16866, Interview of 318th Chemical Company soldier, May 28, 1998, p. 2.

[71] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; United States Central Command, "SigOps Events," January 22, 1991.

[72] As documented by 3rd Armored Division intelligence staff, "Spot Report," January 22, 1991.

[73] 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events."

[74] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; Defense Special Missile and Astronautics Center message, subject: "Mideast Conflict: Iraqi SRBM Launch Summary through 26 February 1991," 271603Z Feb 91.

[75] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225.

[76] Center for Naval Analysis, "Case Study of a Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) Attack: Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia, 15-16 February 1991 (U)," August 1996 (S).

[77] Marine Aviation Logistics Squadron 16, "Command Chronology 1-28 Feb 91," Section II, March 1, 1991; Center for Naval Analysis, "Case Study of a Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) Attack: Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia, 15-16 February 1991 (U)," August 1996 (S); and Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia" (Case Narrative), August 13, 1997, web site www.gulflink.osd.mil/aljubayl/.

[78] Lead Sheet #1410, Interview of United States Coast Guard watch stander, February 24, 1997, p. 2.

[79] Lead Sheet #1232, Interview of United States Navy explosive ordnance disposal specialist, January 8, 1991, p. 2; Lead Sheet #16642, Interview of 390th Transportation Unit soldier, May 19, 1998, p. 1; Lead Sheet #10922, Interview of 567th Transportation Company soldier, October 8, 1997, p.2, 3.

[80] United States Coast Guard Port Security Unit 301, "Port Security Unit-301, Al-Jubayl Saudi Arabia 1990-91," undated.

[81] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; unidentified United States Army air defense element message form, "Scud Launch," 252210C Feb 91.

[82] Watson, Bruce W., "Iraqi Scud Launches During the Gulf War," Appendix C, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, George Watson and Cyr Tsouras, London, Greenhill Books, 1991, p. 225; Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, "The United States Navy in 'Desert Shield/Desert Storm,'" May 15, 1991; unidentified United States Army operations staff, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 25, 1991; United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," February 25, 1991.

[83] United States Army Component United States Central Command, "Mass Casualty - SCUD Attacks," United States Army Component United States Central Command Lessons Learned Worksheet, April 25, 1991.

[84] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Message Form," January 26, 1991.

[85] United States Army Component United States Central Command Support Command memorandum, "Written After Action Report, Desert Shield/Desert Storm," May 30, 1991.

[86] Unidentified United States Army operations staff, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," 252042C Feb 91.

[87] United States Central Command, "CINC's Press Briefing," February 27, 1991.

[88] "Scud Data Raise Questions About Barracks Destruction," Wall Street Journal, April 15, 1991, p. 16.

[89] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; 82nd Airborne Division, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 22, 1991; VII Corps, "Daily Log," January 22, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; VII Corps, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 22, 1991; VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA."

[90] United States Commander in Chief Central Command message, subject: "SITREP/USCINCCENT/168/Jan," 242115Z Jan 91, Section 5; unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; unidentified United States Army organization log, "Scud Launch Report," January 23, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 23, 1991; unidentified United States Army air defense element, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," January 24, 1991.

[91] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," January 26, 1991; 82nd Airborne Division, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 26, 1991.

[92] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," January 28, 1991; 3rd Armored Division intelligence staff, "Spot Report," January 28, 1991.

[93] United States Army Component United States Central Command operations staff United States Marine Component United States Central Command desk, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 7, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; unidentified United States Central Command command post "JTF J2 Message Form/Journal Log," February 8, 1991; 2nd Armored Calvary Regiment, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 8, 1991.

[94] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 11, 1991; United States Central Command, "SigOps Events," January 25, 1991; unidentified United States Army intelligence staff, "Spot Report," February 11, 1991.

[95] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 24, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; United States Central Command, "Air Defense Operations," February 24, 1991.

[96] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; unidentified United States Army division air defense element, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," subject "Follow-up on SCUD Launch," February 25, 1991; VII Corps, "Daily Log," February 24, 1991; XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," February 1991.

[97] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated.

[98] United States Army Component United States Central Command, ARCENT Spot Report, "CENTCOM Scud Update," January 21, 1991.

[99] VII Corps air defense element, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 21, 1991.

[100] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 47.

[101] VII Corps, "Daily Log," September 3, 1991; unidentified United States Army division intelligence staff, "Journal Sheet," January 21, 1991; 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, "11th ADA Brigade S2's Chronology of Events," undated, p. 10.

[102] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," January 25, 1991.

[103] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; Defense Special Missile and Astronautics Center message, subject: "Mideast Conflict: Iraqi SRBM Launch Summary through 26 February 1991," 271603Z Feb 91; unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated; unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," January 25, 1991.

[104] United States Central Command, "Daily Staff Journal Sig Ops Events," January 25, 1991.

[105] VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA;" VII Corps, "Daily Log;" January 25, 1991; 20th Engineer Brigade, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 25, 1991.

[106] 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, "11th ADA Brigade S2's Chronology of Events," undated, p. 11; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225.

[107] Unidentified United States Central Command organization, "Scud Launch/Kill Summary," undated.

[108] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 48; VII Corps, "Jayhawk Daily News," February 4, 1991.

[109] Unidentified United States Army division air defense element "Spot Report Format," February 3, 1991.

[110] Watson, Bruce W., "Iraqi Scud Launches During the Gulf War," Appendix C, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, George Watson and Cyr Tsouras, London, Greenhill Books, 1991, p. 224; United States Central Command, "Daily Staff Journal Sig Ops Events," February 3, 1991.

[111] 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, "11th ADA Brigade S2's Chronology of Events," undated, p. 12; unidentified United States Army organization, "Iraq-Kuwait: Situation Update," February 14, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49.

[112] Unidentified United States Army intelligence staff, "Spot Report," February 14, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49.

[113] United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," February 14, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49.

[114] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49.

[115] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; unidentified United States Army air defense element, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 21, 1991; Defense Intelligence Agency, "NADA INTSUM 231-91," February 22, 1991; XVIII Airborne Corps personnel staff, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 21, 1991; VII Corps, "Daily Log," February 21, 1991.

[116] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 24, 1991; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 50; unidentified United States Army air defense element, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 24, 1991; XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," February 1991.

[117] 3rd Armored Division intelligence staff, "Spot Report," February 14, 1991; XVIII Airborne Corps, Intelligence Spot Report Format, "Scud Update," February 14, 1991.

[118] XVIII Airborne Corps message Form, "Confirmation on Scuds," February 14, 1991; United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," February 14, 1991.

[119] Gulf War Air Power Survey, Volume I, Part I, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 245.

[120] Defense Special Missile and Astronautics Center message, subject "Mideast Conflict: Iraqi SRBM Launch Summary through 26 February 1991," 271603Z Feb 91.

[121] VII Corps, "Enclosure A to Appx 2 to Tab H to VII Corps DS AAR," undated; VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA;" 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, "Operation Desert Storm AAR and Significant Events," March 6, 1991.

[122] VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA."

[123] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, "11th ADA Brigade S2's Chronology of Events," undated, p. 12.

[124] VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA."

[125] United States Central Command, "SigOps Events," February 22, 1991; VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 ADA;" XVIII Airborne Corps, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," February 21, 1991; unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 21-22, 1991; unidentified United States Army division intelligence staff, "Spot Report," February 21, 1991.

[126] Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 49; unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 21-22, 1991; Lead Sheet #18912, Interview of 354th Equipment Maintenance Squadron airman, September 10, 1998, p. 1.

[127] United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," February 25, 1991.

[128] Basic sources consulted in building this graph included the following cited extensively elsewhere is this paper: Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, p. 42-50; Watson, Bruce W., "Iraqi Scud Launches During the Gulf War," Appendix C, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, George Watson and Cyr Tsouras, London, Greenhill Books, 1991, p. 224-225; Defense Special Missile and Astronautics Center message, subject "Mideast Conflict: Iraqi SRBM Launch Summary through 26 February 1991," 271603Z Feb 91; Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr., "Iraqi Missile Operations During 'Desert Storm' - Update," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1991, p. 225; "11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, Chronology of Events," undated; United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," February 25, 1991.

[129] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Middle East Trip Provides Useful Information Exchange," January 27, 1998.

[130] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Middle East Trip Provides Useful Information Exchange," January 27, 1998.

[131] There were too many source documents to conveniently cite here. We cited most of them elsewhere in this paper, such as United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log;" VII Corps, "Major Subordinate Command Historical Reports -- Task Force 8-43 AD;" VII Corps, "Daily Log," January-February 1991; and other command post logs and journals.

[132] Department of Defense, Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 177.

[133] Schubert, Frank N. and Theresa L. Kraus, eds., "The Whirlwind War, the United States Army in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm," Appendix A, Center of Military History, United States Army, Washington, DC, 1995, p. 245-246; Department of Defense, Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 176-177.

[134] Unidentified United States Army air defense element message, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," January 17, 1991; XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," January 1991.

[135] United States Army Component United States Central Command operations staff, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 17, 1991.

[136] 513th Military Intelligence Battalion, "Foreign Material Intel Bn Section III G I," undated.

[137] United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 17, 1991.

[138] 807th Surgical Hospital (Mobile Army), "The 807th Surgical Hospital (Mobile Army) and its Contributions and Adventures during Operation 'Desert Shield/Storm,'" undated.

[139] The December 25, 26, 27, 29 and 30, 1990, false alarms were based on XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," December, 1990.

[140] Lovece, Joseph, "Electronic Noise from U.S. Gear Prompted Errant Patriots," Defense Week, September 28, 1992, p. 1, 13.

[141] Simon, Alexander, "The Patriot Missile. Performance in the Gulf War Reviewed," July 15, 1996, Center for Defense Information, web site: www.cdi.org (as of October 1, 1997); Department of the Army, "Patriot TBM Engagement Modes," executive summary, January 24, 1991.

[142] VII Corps, "Defense of the Wadi Al Batin," p. 91; Lewis, George N., Steve Fetter, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Casualties and Damage from Scud Attacks in the 1991 Gulf War," Appendix, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, March 1993, p. 47.

[143] XVIII Airborne Corps, "XVIII Airborne Corps Operation Desert Storm Chronology," January 1991; 1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, "1st Brigade Chronology," Annex B, undated.

[144] United States Army Component United States Central Command, "Unconfirmed Spot Report," memorandum for command group, January 18, 1991.

[145] 1st Calvary Division, "AAR 1st Calvary Div Command Report," April 10, 1991.

[146] United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 18, 1991.

[147] Based on messages and logs referenced in Section V and too numerous to repeat here.

[148] Boley, Ray M. "Patriot Performance Assessment in Desert Storm Roadmap (U)," CAS, Incorporated for United States Army Missile Command, July 25, 1991 (S), p. D-2; Lovece, Joseph, "Electronic Noise from U.S. Gear Prompted Errant Patriots," Defense Week, September 28, 1992, p. 1.

[149] Central Intelligence Agency, "Gulf War Syndrome," July 1995; Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA Report on Intelligence Related to Gulf War Illnesses," August 2, 1996. See also bullets in this section.

[150] Central Intelligence Agency, "Gulf War Syndrome," July 1995; Howard Hughes Medical Institute, "Laboratory Chemical Safety Summaries," Nitric Acid, web site: www.hhmi.org (as of May 8, 2000); Proctor, Nick H., et al., Chemical Hazards of the Workplace, third edition, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1991, p. 425-426.

[151] Testimony of Ms. Harmon-Davis before the Presidential Advisory Committee on Gulf War Veterans' Illnesses, Washington, DC, May 1, 1996; Lead Sheet #19849, Interview of 55th Support Battalion supply soldier, October 10, 1998, p. 1; Lead Sheet #9462, Interview of 10th Battalion soldier, December 18, 1997, p. 1; Lead Sheet #16471, Interview of Army Support Group operations, training, and procurement officer, May 15, 1998, p. 2, 5; Lead Sheet #20899, Interview of 551st Transportation Company soldier, December 29, 1998, p. 1,2; Lead Sheet #17229, Interview of Navy master chief of motor vessel Baugh, June 10, 1998, p. 1; Lead Sheet #8802, Interview of 703rd Provisional Boat Company engineer-oiler, June 25, 1997, p. 2.

[152] European Oil Company Organization for Environment, Health, and Safety, "Kerosine," web site: www.concawe.be (as of January 27, 2000).

[153] Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "Inhibited Red Fuming Nitric Acid," (Information Paper), web site www.gulflink.osd.mil/irfna/, August 3, 1999.

[154] Department of Defense Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 73, 97, 166, 168, 169.

[155] Department of Defense Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 177.

[156] United States Space Command, "Defense Support Program," web site: www.spacecom.af.mil (as of September 30, 1999).

[157] Hoffman, Timothy, "Space Capabilities Vastly Improved Since Gulf War," Air Force Space Command Public Affairs, Peterson Air Force Base, CO, March 1998; Cooper, Henry F., "Limited Ballistic Missile Strikes. GPALS Comes Up with an Answer," NATO Review, June 1992, web site: www.nato.int (as of July 27, 1999).

[158] Broad, William J., "Iraqis Using Clouds to Cover Scud Firings, Meteorologists Say," New York Times, January 25, 1991, p. 10.

[159] Federation of American Scientists, "Defense Support Program," web site: www.fas.org (as of September 30, 1999).

[160] Boley, Ray M. "Patriot Performance Assessment in Desert Storm Roadmap (U)," CAS, Incorporated for United States Army Missile Command, July 25, 1991 (S), p. D-2.

[161] Gulf War Air Power Survey, Volume II, Part I, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 124, 149, 151.

[162] Testimony of General H. Norman Schwartzkopf before the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs, January 29, 1997, the United States Senate web site: www.senate.gov (as of June 11, 1999).

[163] Gulf War Air Power Survey, Volume II, Part I, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 178, 182, 184.

[164] For Scuds fired, see section V. Anti-Scud sorties based on Department of Defense Final Report to Congress, "Conduct of the Persian Gulf War," April 1992, p. 165.

[165] Gulf War Air Power Survey, Volume II, Part I, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1993, p. 189.

[166] United Nations Special Commission, "UNSCOM's Comprehensive Review," Annex A, Status of the Material Balances in the Missile Area, and cover letter, January 25, 1999, web site: www.un.org (as of March 10, 2000).

[167] Isby, David C., "The Residual Iraqi 'Scud' Force," Jane's Intelligence Review, Vol. 7, Nbr 3, p. 115.

[168] Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "National Briefings: Iraq," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of July 29, 1999).

[169] United Nations Special Commission, "UNSCOM's Comprehensive Review," Appendix 1, Status of the Material Balances in the Missile Area, and cover letter, January 25, 1999, web site: www.un.org (as of March 10, 2000).

[170] Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, "National Briefings: Iraq," web site: www.cdiss.org (as of July 29, 1999).

[171] Federation of American Scientists, "UNSCOM and Iraqi Missiles," web site: www.fas.org (as of May 13, 1999).

[172] Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East," Iraq, on site cns.miis.edu (as of April 24, 2000).

[173] United States Government White Paper, "Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs," February 13, 1998.

[174] Defense Technical Information Center, DoD Dictionary of Military Terms, "Circular Error Probable," web site: www.dtic.mil (as of September 15, 1999).

[175] Federation of American Scientists, "Defense Support Program," web site: www.fas.org (as of September 30, 1999).

[176] United States Army Technical Manual 3-6665-342-10, "Operator's Manual, Nuclear-Biological-Chemical Reconnaissance System (NBCRS) Fox XM93," Washington, DC, Change 2, April 21, 1995, p. 1-2, 1-6; Testimony of Fox subject matter expert, Mr. Richard Vigus, CBDCOM, before the Presidential Advisory Committee on Gulf War Veterans' Illnesses, May 7, 1997; United States Army Field Manual 3-101-2, "NBC Reconnaissance Equipment and Organizations," August 10, 1994, p. 2-1.

[177] Brletich, Nancy R., Mary Jo Waters, Gregory W. Bowen, Mary Frances Tracy, Worldwide Chemical Detection Equipment Handbook, Chemical and Biological Defense Information Analysis Center, October 1995, p. 430-431. Copies of the Worldwide Chemical Detection Equipment Handbook may be purchased from the CBIAC. To order, please contact the CBIAC Administrator, via phone (410-676-9030), fax (410-676-9703), e-mail (cbiac@battelle.org), or use the interactive request form on the CBIAC web site: www.cbiac.apgea.army.mil (as of October 19, 1999). See also Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, "M256 Series Chemical Agent Detector Kit" (Information Paper), web site www.gulflink.osd.mil/m256/, July 23, 1999.

[178] Brletich, Nancy R., Mary Jo Waters, Gregory W. Bowen, Mary Frances Tracy, Worldwide Chemical Detection Equipment Handbook, Chemical and Biological Defense Information Analysis Center, October 1995, p. 412.

[179] Boley, Ray M. "Patriot Performance Assessment in Desert Storm Roadmap (U)," CAS, Incorporated for United States Army Missile Command, July 25, 1991, (S) p. 3.

[180] United States Army Field Manual 3-4, United States Marine Corp Fleet Marine Force Manual 11-09, "NBC Protection," February 21, 1996, p. 2-2 to 2-4.

[181] Raytheon Corporation, "Patriot Combat Proven Air Defense System," web site: www.geocities.com (as of October 10, 1997).

[182] Public Broadcasting System, "M1M-104 Patriot," web site: www2.pbs.org (as of October 1, 1997).

[183] United States Army Field Manual 3-9, United States Navy Publication P-467, United States Air Force Manual 355-7, "Potential Military Chemical/Biological Agents and Compounds," December 12, 1990, chapter 2, p. 23.

[184] Defense Technical Information Center, DoD Dictionary of Military Terms, "Universal Time," web site: www.dtic.mil (as of September 15, 1999).

[185] Unidentified United States Army organization, "G-3 Spot Report," January 20, 1991; 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events," January 20, 1991.

[186] United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 20, 1991.

[187] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Desert Shield G3-NBC Significant Events," undated.

[188] 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 21, 1991; United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 21, 1991; unidentified United States Army organization, "Desert Shield G3-NBC Significant Events," undated.

[189] VII Corps air defense element, "Daily Staff Journal or Duty Officer's Log," January 21, 1991.

[190] 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events," January 22, 1991.

[191] 1st Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional), "Log of Events," January 23, 1991.

[192] United States Commander-in-Chief United States Central Command, "Daily Staff Journal Sig Ops Events," January 23, 1991; 74th Explosive Ordnance Disposal Detachment, "Explosive Ordnance Incident Report," January 23, 1991.

[193] Unidentified United States Army rear command post, "Message Form/CTOC Journal Sheet," January 23, 1991.

[194] United States Central Command, "Sequence of Events, 2nd Scud Launch," January 25, 1991.

[195] United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," January 26, 1991.

[196] United States Central Command, "SigOps Events," February 11, 1991.

[197] XVIII Airborne Corps, "Intelligence Spot Report Format," Scud Update, February 14, 1991; unidentified United States Army intelligence staff, "Spot Report," February 14, 1991; United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," February 14, 1991.

[198] 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, "Significant Events from Daily Log," March 6, 1991; VII Corps, "NBC Operations Summary," Appendix 2, undated.

[199] Unidentified United States Army organization, "Scud Alert," February 24, 1991; United States Central Command, "NBC Desk Log," February 25, 1991.

[200] United States Army Component United States Central Command, "ARCENT Spot Report," February 25, 1991.

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