TAB D - Analysis of CURR Scud Incident List

TAB D – Analysis of CURR Scud Incident List

Release of an internal working paper to several veterans by the Armed Forces Center for Unit Records Research (CURR, formerly Center for Research of Unit Records – CRUR) led to accusations that the Department of Defense had understated the number of Scud firings against the KTO. The working paper listed Scud attacks against Coalition forces. We present below our analysis of this list. In analyzing the list, we based our judgments on careful review of the original operational references used by a CURR officer to construct the list. This material also served as a major resource in preparing the firing incident summaries in Section V. We have provided most of this material, sometimes in redacted form, for review through hyperlinks in the on-line version of this paper on our GulfLINK web site. The sources were too numerous to conveniently cite separately in this tab. Note that this tab and the original CURR compilation address only Scud strikes against the KTO and do not include those against Israel.

Table 8 that follows includes all of the original data from the CURR Scud attack list including date and time of the incident, the number of Scuds reportedly fired, the reported target location, and the CURR analyst’s remarks. To this CURR section of the table, we have added an entry number and our estimate of the time zone used in the list (coordinated universal time — Z time — or local time in the KTO — C time, which is three hours later than Z time). The right side of the table adds our assessment of each CURR entry. We placed CURR’s missile numbers from each entry into one or more columns based on careful analysis of whether the entry was the first in CURR’s list to cover a valid Scud attack on the KTO, a duplication of a valid previous entry, or data at variance with what we believe happened. These last nine columns include:

"1st Ref." The first time a valid Scud attack shows up in CURR’s list. While the attack was valid, the entry sometimes includes erroneous information, and we so note this in our remarks column. (46 Scuds each);
"Dupes." CURR Scud attack entries that we believe address valid attacks previously listed. However, these additional entries sometimes include more (or less) accurate details on the attack than the first entry, in which case we note this in our remarks. (202 reported missiles);
"Likely Dupes." The CURR entry appears to address a valid incident covered previously, but the CURR entry and the documents used to create it include details (other than number of Scuds fired) at variance with the bulk of the evidence. This made us somewhat less sure that it was a duplicated entry. (30 missiles);
"Dupe of." Where an entry appears to involve information about a Scud attack previously listed in the table, the next column notes the entry number of the duplicated CURR entry;
"False Target." In this column we include entries that were documented as Scuds when in reality they were only false Patriot targets resulting from radar interference (27 reported Scuds);
"Wrong Salvo Size." Where a CURR incident entry lists a valid attack but includes an incorrect (too large) number of Scuds for the attack, we put the overage in this column (33 reported Scuds);
"No Match." In a few cases, we could not match a CURR attack entry with any documented event, usually because the entry and its source material lacked key data such as date and time (6 reported Scuds).
"Event # in Sec V." Where any CURR entry corresponds to an attack we document in the event tables in Section V of this report, we note our serial number from Section V here.
"OSAGWI Remarks." This final column summarizes our analysis of each entry to help the reader understand our logic and provides other observations on the CURR entries.

Figure 12 below summarizes the numbers of CURR entries that fell in each of the above categories. The 46 valid missile attacks against the KTO correspond to our assessment noted in Section V.

Figure 12. Assessed categories of CURR Scud attack entries

Table 8. Analysis of CURR Scud Incident Entries

CURR Working Paper Entries							Office of the Special Assistant Analysis
Serial Nbr	CURR Date	CURR Time	Time = Z or C	Scuds Fired	Reported Target Location	CURR Remarks	1st Ref	Clear Dupes	Likely Dupes	Dupe of	False Target	Wrong Salvo Size	No Match	Event # in Sec V	OSAGWI Remarks
1	17 Jan	0255	?	1	Dhahran	Impact					1			None	Three hand logs reflected Scud activity early 1/17/91. Only coordinates put impact 13 miles NNW of Al Mishab. One log notes "could be artillery." No other sources note this activity. Probable false report based on incoming artillery (rockets?).
2	18 Jan		?	1	Dhahran	Destroyed					1			None	Many sources reported this activity later determined to be reaction to false Patriot radar targets.
3	18 Jan	0030	Z	1	Dhahran	Not engaged		1		#2				None	Refs cited by CURR also indicate successful engagement by Patriots - source of "not engaged" is unknown. Only time in refs was 0300 probably mis-entered as 0030. Further reflection of false target engagements.
4	18 Jan	0135-45	C	1	Dhahran	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#2				None	Refs note times from 0128Z to 0435 (presume C). Further reflection of false target engagements.
5	18 Jan	0225	Z	6	Dhahran	No impact					6			None	Log notes at 0315 (C) Scuds on way to KKIA - most to Israel but possibly one to Dhahran. Another ref notes one Scud intercepted at 0145Z with six more (but no impacts) at 0225Z. Additional false targets.
6	18 Jan	0315	?		KKMC				1	#2				None	Ref indicates Scuds on way to KKIA - most to Israel but one may have hit W. KTO. Duplicative false target reflection.
7	18 Jan	0400-20	C	1	Dhahran	First Scud /intercepted		1		#2				None	Ref notes first successful Scud intercept reported but later known as false target engagement.
8	18 Jan	0420	C	1	King Fadh IAP	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#2				None	Duplicative false target reflection based on time.
9	18 Jan	0450	C	1	Dhahran	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#2				None	Duplicative false target reflection based on time.
10	18 Jan	0500-8	C	1	Saudi (NFI)	Intercepted by Patriot		1		#2				None	Duplicative false target reflection based on time.
11	18 Jan	0930	C	1	KKIA	Engaged by Patriot		1		#2				None	Duplicative false target reflection. Time noted was for stand-up briefing next morning (ref was briefing slide).
12	20 Jan		?	3	Dhahran/ Riyadh	2 destroyed, 1 possible			3	#14				1	One daily log ref'd - no times. Probable dupe of #14 (based on targets).
13	20 Jan	0235	?	6	Riyadh	5 destroyed/1 impact (tent)					6			None	Probable false target engagements but cannot confirm. No verified Scud launches at noted time. Second of two refs notes no impact.
14	20 Jan	?	?	8+	Saudi (NFI)	Engaged/destroyed	8					1		1	Numerous sources echoed this initial corroborated activity aimed at Dhahran (two at about 1845Z and two at about 2145Z) and Riyadh (four at about 2145Z). "8+" interpreted as nine -- other sources suggest as few as 6 (2 Dhahran, 4 Riyadh). Best information indicates 4 at Dhahran, 4 at Riyadh, and 1 uncorrelated if total was 9.
15	20 Jan	?	?	1	Riyadh	Impact by Riyadh/minor dam		1		#14				1	Single ref also was cited for #14. Confirmed duplication.
16	20 Jan	1843-50	Z	2	Dhahran	Destroyed		2		#14				1	One ref notes firing against Dhahran about 1850Z and at Riyadh about 2200Z. Times confirm duplicative entry.
17	20 Jan	2139	Z	2	Dhahran	1 destroyed, 1 in water		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
18	20 Jan	2142-9	Z	4	Riyadh	Impact		4		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
19	20 Jan	2150	Z	3	Dhahran	Debris fell/202 MI Bn billets		3		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
20	20 Jan	2154-6	Z	2+2	Dhahran	1 Scud killed by Patriot		3		#14		1		1	CURR ref's noted three vs. four (2+2) launches. Times confirm duplicative entry.
21	20 Jan	2200-2305	Z	3	Dhahran	Destroyed		3		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
22	20 Jan	2200	Z		Riyadh	Destroyed		1		#14				1	Unk nbr of Scuds -- assumed one. Times confirm duplicative entry.
23	20 Jan	2200-5	Z	4	Dhahran	All destroyed by Patriots		4		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
24	20 Jan	2205	Z	2	King Fahd	Possible impact at King Fahd		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. King Fahd International Airport is near Dhahran. Times confirm duplicative entry.
25	20 Jan	2220	Z	2	Dhahran	Impact vic Dhah+G65ran IAP		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
26	20 Jan	2330	Z	2	King Fahd	Impact outside city (CIA)		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
27	21 Jan	0030	C	2	Al Kabor			2		#14				1	"Wrap-up" - Al Kabor is in Dhahran area. Cited sources reported in KTO local (C) time (C=Z+3).
28	21 Jan	0045	C	2	Dhahran	Destroyed		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
29	21 Jan	0045	C	1	Dhahran	Impact in water		1		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
30	21 Jan	0045	C	4	Riyadh	Destroyed/12 minor injuries		4		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
31	21 Jan	0050	C	1	Riyadh	Impact		1		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
32	21 Jan	0057	C	2	Al Jubayl	Destroyed		2		#14				1	Further info on #14. Times confirm duplicative entry.
33	21 Jan	0100	C	17	Riyadh	14 shot down/3 missing		8		#14	9			1 and None	Large number not supported by other evidence. USARCENT indicated 14 kills because some Patriots went after Patriots.
34	21 Jan	0128	C	6	Riyadh	150ft SW of King Abdul Aziz/vacant lot/damage to sur[rounding] bldgs.		6		#14				13	Further info on #14. Times indicate duplicative entry.
35	21 Jan	1918	Z	1	Al Jubayl	Into N. Arabian Gulf	1							3	Several refs to this activity, some noting two Scuds. Weight of evidence supports one.
36	21 Jan	1920	Z	1	Dhahran	Landed in Gulf		1		#35				3	Further info on #35. Times, water impact confirm duplicative entry.
37	21 Jan	2220-7	C	2	Dhahran	Short of Dhahran/fell in water		1		#35		1		3	Second Scud unsubstantiated. Times and water impact indicate duplicative entry.
38	21 Jan	2225	C	2	Jubayl	Impact in water		1		#35		1		3	Second Scud unsubstantiated. Times and water impact indicate duplicative entry.
39	22 Jan	0041	Z	3	Riyadh	2 kills.1 impact north	3							13	Refs for this activity note two or three Scuds - weight of evidence supports three. Initial entry for this corroborated incident.
40	22 Jan	0047	Z	2	Riyadh	Engaged, debris shower		2		#39				13	Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.
41	22 Jan	0143	Z	2	Riyadh	Probable kills			2	#39				13	CURR time clearly wrong - refs they cited for this incident note times around 0043Z or 0343C. No sources indicate activity at CURR noted time (0143). Likely duplicative entry based on minutes after hour.
42	22 Jan	0340	C	3	Riyadh	3 destroyed		3		#39				13	Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.
43	22 Jan	0340	C	3	Riyadh	Impact/no damage		3		#39				13	Further info on #39. Time indicates duplicative entry.
44	22 Jan	0410	Z	3	Dhahran	2 detonated 50 mi W (desert)/1 in Gulf	3							4	A few sources indicated four firings but consensus is three. First ref to this corroborated activity.
45	22 Jan	0410	Z	1	King Fahd IAP	Destroyed over KFIAP		1		#44				4	Further info on #44 activity. King Fahd IAP is near Dhahran. Time confirms duplicative entry.
46	22 Jan	0410	Z	2	Qatar	Landed north in water		2		#44				4	Further info on #44 activity. Dhahran is NW of Qatar. Time confirms duplicative entry.
47	22 Jan	0411	Z	3	E. Saudi	Not engaged		3		#44				4	Further info on #44 activity. Time confirms duplicative entry.
48	22 Jan	0422	C	5	Riyadh	3 destroyed/2 SE of envelope [defended area]			3	#39		2		13	Probable late reporting of #39 activity. CURR entry was based on single ref with five vs. three Scuds. No other indications of activity at time this hand message prepared. Estimate three are duplicative and two overestimate of missiles fired.
49	22 Jan	0425	Z	1	Dhahran	1 destroyed		1		#44				4	Further info on #44 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.
50	22 Jan	0425	C	2	Dhahran	Impact outside envelope/desert		2		#44				4	Further info on #44 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.
51	22 Jan	1745	?	1	KKMC	Confirmed warhead kills					1			None	1 source noted this attack had no warning and another source noted possible software glitch. Evidence suggests Patriots fired at false targets.
52	22 Jan	1800	C	#	Dhahran	4 Patriot intercepts/2 detonated		1		#53	1				No nbr entered. Only one Source said two Scuds. Scored one as dupe and one as additional false target.
53	23 Jan	1945	Z	4	Damman/ Riyadh	All destroyed by Patriots	4							5	First entry for this valid activity. Best estimate is five at KTO - incl three at Riyadh and two at Dhahran. Noted time is ~nine mins early. Single source for this entry was briefing slide that may have rounded off time. No other refs substantiated this early time.
54	23 Jan	1954	Z	2	Dhahran	Engaged by Patriot		2		#53				5	Further info on #53 activity. This is valid time for these incidents.
55	23 Jan	1954	Z	2	Riyadh	Engaged by Patriot		2		#53				5	Further info on #53 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.
56	23 Jan	1957	Z	5	Saudi (NFI)	2 destroyed @ Riyadh/0 @ KKMC		4		#53		1		5	Four are duplicative. Fifth Scud at this approximate time was fired at Israel (here wrong salvo size).
57	23 Jan	2254	C	3	Dhahran	2 destroyed/1 into Gulf		2		#53		1		5	Three Scuds appear to be one too many against Dhahran based on weight of evidence. Time indicates other 2 are duplicative.
58	23 Jan	2254	C	2	Riyadh	1 destroyed		2		#53				5	Further info on #53 activity. Time indicates duplicative entry.
59	23 Jan	2258-2303	C	2/2	Dhahran/ Riyadh	All destroyed by Patriots		4		#53				5	Further info on #53 activity. Times indicate duplicative entry.
60	23 Jan	2300	C	2	KKMC	Destroyed by Patriot					2			None	A few refs note one or two Scuds engaged from KKMC but other sources indicate scepticism. This was final noted incidence of Patriot fire on false targets. See main body, Section VI.
61	24 Jan		?	4	Damman/ Riyadh	All destroyed by Patriots		4		#53				5	No time entered. One ref noted activity happened "yesterday" (Jan 23). Clear that this was later summary of activity and duplicative entry on #53 incident.
62	25 Jan	1125	Wrong C	5	Riyadh	(none)	2					3		15	Single hand log source had start (from) time of 25/2000[C] ruling out 25/1125C as correct time. Presume real time was 11:25 p.m. or 2325C. This is hour late for confirmed activity. No other support for either 1125C or 2325C incidents on 25th. Weight of evidence indicates two Scuds fired at ~2222C. Assess this entry as first for these two Scuds and excess salvo size for other three.
63	25 Jan	1921-2	Z	3	Riyadh	(none)		2		#62		1		15	Most refs for this entry also note two Scuds. Z time is approximately correct. Duplicative of #62 activity.
64	25 Jan	2223	C	1	MODA Riyadh	Patriots destroyed/Scud @ 2K S		1		#62				15	Time (C) indicates duplicative entry on #62 activity.
65	25 Jan	2224	C	2	Riyadh	Both shot down by Patriots/1 hit Dept Interior Bldg/slight injuries		2		#62				15	Duplicative and additional info on #62 activity based on time.
66	25 Jan	2233	C	1	Riyadh	Engaged by Patriot		1		#62				15	Duplicative of #62 activity based on time.
67	25 Jan	2230	C	2	Riyadh	1 destroyed/1 impact 2 km S of MODA building		2		#62				15	Duplicative (based on time) and additional info on #62 activity.
68	25 Jan	2250	C	1	KKMC	Killed by Patriot			1	#62				15	Log entry noted one Scud inbound and also noted maintenance status at KKMC - location probably not related to Scud target. Similarity of time suggests dupe of #62 activity.
69	25 Jan	Even- ing	?	2/1	Riyadh/ Dhahran	All intercepted by Patriots	1	2		#62				15 and 6	Both of CURR's sources for this entry were 24-hour summaries without times. Riyadh attack duplicates that assessed in #62. Attack on Dhahran was said to be "last night" and actually occurred early on 26th. This is initial entry covering corroborated Dhahran attack and assessed as duplicative for two at Riyadh.
70	25/ 26 Jan		?	1	Dhahran	Intercepted		1		#69				6	Single ref marked as basis for this entry reports this attack at 0330 on 26th. Further reflection of Dhahran activity first noted in #69.
71	25/ 26 Jan		?	2	Riyadh	Intercepted		2		#62				15	Single ref was briefing slide from 26th reporting Riyadh/Dhahran attacks "last night." Clearly further reflection of Riyadh activity in #62.
72	26 Jan	0028	Z	1	Dhahran	Impact 0035		1		#69				6	Corroborated time for Dhahran attack in #69.
73	26 Jan	0330	C	2	Dhahran/ KFIA	Both intercepted by Patriots/1 warhead landed in Dhahran/no deaths or injuries reported		1		#69		1		6	C time for attack in #69. Best sources indicate only one Scud but three other refs reported two.
74	26 Jan	0435	C	2	Dhahran	Engaged by Patriot			1	#69		1		6	Scud activity slide included entry for 0435C (two missiles). No other source reported this time which was ~one hour late. One is likely late dupe of #69 - other wrong salvo size.
75	26 Jan	1946	Z	1	Riyadh	Detonated	1							16	Several sources reported on this single launch at Riyadh with a Patriot intercept. First entry on this corroborated attack.
76	26 Jan	1948	Z	(5)	Saudi	SA(Riyadh/2) NFI		1		#75		4		16	Two refs for this entry summarized Scud attacks. One did not note target areas for five Scuds, other indicated two toward Riyadh and rest at Israel. Best available information corroborates one Scud at Riyadh and four at Israel. Riyadh attack clearly dupe of #75, rest wrong salvo size for KTO.
77	26 Jan	2018	Z	1+(1)	Saudi	Possible warhead kill		1		#75		1		16	One confirmed, one unconfirmed initially reported fired at KTO. Later, better assessments support only one. Ref gave start/end times for all attacks including against Israel. CURR time is end time and involved attack on Israel. Therefore, clear dupe of #75.
78	26 Jan	2138	Z		Riyadh	Scud debris falling		1		#75				16	Assumed one missile in absence of entry. Entered time was log entry for Explosive Ordnance Disposal incident report on Scud debris, not time of attack. Clearly late reflection of #75 activity.
79	26 Jan	2248	C	1	Riyadh	Intercepted by Patriot		1		#75				16	Shift to C time. Clear dupe of #75 based on time.
80	26 Jan	2250-2320	C	1	Riyadh	Destroyed over empty field		1		#75				16	Times indicate further reflection of Riyadh activity in #75.
81	26 Jan	2300	C?		King Fadh/ KKMC	(none)							1	None	Single hand log ref noted four launches -- one at Riyadh, one at King Fadh (proper sp Fahd -- airport near Dhahran) and two at Israel. No mention of KKMC. CURR probably mislocated King Fahd Airport. However, there is no corroboration for attack on Dhahran (or KKMC) at this time -- attack was on Riyadh. Therefore, this entry is unmatched.
82	26 Jan	2310	C	1	Dhahran	Engaged by Patriot							1	None	Two almost identical Scud/Patriot Results tables vary only in attributing this launch against Dhahran vs. Riyadh. Weight of evidence clearly favors Riyadh with this entry (like #81) unmatched.
83	26 Jan	2332	C	1	Riyadh	Impact 1/4 mi SW of MODA bldg		1		#75				16	Time indicates further reflection of Riyadh activity in #75.
84	26/7 Jan	0300	Z	1	Riyadh	Intercepted by Patriot		1		#75				16	Time entry is date-time group of SITREP summary msg, not incident time. Clearly summarizing #75 Riyadh activity.
85	27 Jan	48 hrs	?	4	Saudi (NFI)	All engaged by Patriot			4	#62, #69, #75				15, 6, and 16	Source was 48-hour wrap-up. Four does not include unsubstantiated launch against Dhahran.
86	28 Jan	0710	Prob C	1	Dhahran	1 HTH contractor hit by debris			1	Unk				Unk	Source was NBC log from E of KKMC bemoaning unavailability of commercial CWA decontamination chemical (HTH = calcium hypochlorite) because supplier/contractor took Scud damage. Probably reflection of unidentified previous attack vice new separate incident. No other evidence of activity at noted time/location.
87	28 Jan	1755	Z	1	Riyadh	Intercepted by Patriot	1							17	Several sources reported a Scud kill at Riyadh (a few refs suggested two to three Scuds but rest of refs note only one with another fired later toward Israel). Initial corroborated reflection of this attack.
88	28 Jan	1758	Z	1	Riyadh	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#87				17	Time clearly indicates this is further reflection of Riyadh activity in #87.
89	28 Jan	1904	Z	2-3	Riyadh	NFI			1	#87		2		17	One log ref had entry for 2104C (1804Z) with three Scuds reported against Riyadh. Other ref (summary message) included 1904Z time which does not correlate with either C or Z time for corroborated incident. Suspect one-hour error in this summary. Also, bulk of evidence supports only one Scud firing just before 2100C, hence two uncorrelated salvo size.
90	28 Jan	2057	C	1	Riyadh/Al Jabal	Destroyed, debris fell on farm		1		#87				17	Several sources noted debris in rural area S of town. C time correlates with #87 Z time. Clear dupe.
91	29 Jan	Even- ing	?	2		(none)			1	#87		1		17	One ref for this entry appeared to summarize previous day's activity (one Scud at Riyadh and one at Israel on 28th). Other source included same info in entry for 29th. There are no other indications of any Scud firings on 29th, therefore assessed as previous day's activity. Neither ref noted two Scuds fired at KTO so second missile is incorrect salvo size in CURR entry.
92	29 Jan	0004	C	1	Riyadh	Engaged by Patriot			1	#87				17	Single ref was summary slide showing attack at time noted. No other corroboration for this time. Suspect dupe of #87 with time about 2 hours late.
93	2 Feb	2141-2	Z	2	Riyadh	Destroyed/minor damage and casualties	1					1		18	Most sources indicate one Scud - second unsubstantiated. Initial entry for this Riyadh activity.
94	3 Feb	Early AM	C	1	Riyadh	Intercepted/warhead fell 1/4 m[i?] PX		1		#93				18	Target and general time strongly indicated further info on #93 activity.
95	3 Feb	0042	C	1	Riyadh	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#93				18	Time (C vs. Z) clearly points to dupe of #93.
96	3 Feb	0100	C	1	Riyadh	Engaged/warhead exploded in suburb/damage to several bldgs		1		#93				18	Description and time confirms dupe of #93.
97	3 Feb	0120	C	2	Riyadh	Impacts 30 nm S and 55 nm N		1		#93		1		18	One of two refs claimed two Scuds at Riyadh but most sources report only one Scud at this time. Other considered wrong salvo size.
98	3 Feb	0233	?	1	Riyadh	(none)			1	#93				18	CURR unable to identify ref citing entered time. No other substantiation. Presumed late reporting on #93 activity.
99	7 Feb	2255	Z	1	Riyadh	Intercepted by Patriot	1							19	Numerous sources reported this Scud intercepted by two Patriots but resulting in ground explosion. Initial entry for this corroborated attack.
100	7-8 Feb		?	1	Riyadh	Destroyed		1		#99				19	CURR annotated only one Scud - some refs for this entry note two. Weight of evidence = one.
101	8 Feb	0155-6	C	1	Riyadh	Patriot destroyed/debris prk lot		1		#99				19	Separate debris impacts may have initially suggested separate Scuds. Time confirms dupe of #99.
102	8 Feb	0220	?		O/A (?)	(none)			1	#99				19	Probable late ref to #99 but too little detail to be completely certain. Ref had time of O/A (on or about) 0220.
103	8-9 Feb	0400	Z	1	Riyadh	Intercepted/uninhabited area		1		#99				19	Time (0400Z) was DTG of summary msg not incident. Description strongly indicates dupe of #99.
104	11 Feb	1920	Z	1	Damman	(none)	1							20	Ref notes "probably toward Damman." No other evidence of launch at Damman/Dhahran area at this time. However time equates to Scud at Riyadh. As such - first entry for this incident.
105	11 Feb	1920	Z	1	Riyadh	Diverted/impact University pool		1		#104				20	Dupe of #104 but with correct target (note times).
106	11 Feb	2220-2	C	1	Riyadh	Engaged/warhead exploded beside school/extensive damage		1		#104				20	C time equates to #104 Z time indicating dupe of #104 but with correct target.
107	11 Feb	2225	C	1	Riyadh	Impact 30nm SW		1		#104				20	Time indicates another dupe of #104 with correct target.
108	11 Feb		?	3	Saudi (NFI)	(none)		1		#104		2		20	Of two refs for this entry - one notes two at Israel and one at KTO and other notes one at Israel and three at KTO. Most sources indicate one vice three missiles at KTO this period (at Riyadh). Dupe of #104.
109	12 Feb	1920	Z	1	Riyadh (toward)	Patriot engaged/minor damage			1	#104				20	One of refs for this entry had correct time but on Feb 12th vs.11th. No other evidence for any Scud firings on 12th. Suspect dupe of #104.
110	12 Feb		?	1+(1?)	Riyadh	(none)		1		#104				20	Single ref noted three launches "last night" (11th) - two at Israel and one at Riyadh. Disregarded "+(1?)." Clear dupe of #104.
111	13 Feb (wrong date)	0842	Z	2	Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin (KKMC)	Broke apart/5 impacts @ Hafar	2							23	All refs cited by CURR for this entry had activity on Feb 14 vs. Feb 13 as entered. Note same time as #112. Assess date should have been 14th vice 13th. As such, first entry for this activity. Several refs noted Scuds broke up in air and landed at (up to five) different locations. At least two and probably five Scuds involved. Note Hafir Al Batin is ~43 mi NE of KKMC and not same location.
112	14 Feb	0842	Z	2	Tri-border	Impact S of Tri-Border damage to bldg/no injuries		2		#111				23	Hafir al Batin is ~50 nm from Tri-Border area (Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/Iraq). Time indicates dupe of #111 with correct date.
113	14 Feb	1140	C	3	Hafar Al Batan (aka Hafir Al Batin)	2 hit by Patriots/1 hit in desert	3			#111				23	Initial indication of three additional Scuds in this salvo - assessed valid. Patriots did not engage, however.
114	14 Feb	1142	C	2	KKMC	Outside of Patriot range/fell in civilian district/minor damage		2		#111				23	Note some refs considered Hafir al Batin equated to KKMC. Patriots at KKMC were out of range for Hafir al Batin. Dupe of #111.
115	14 Feb	1148	C	1	Riyadh	***** (?)			1	#111				23	Times equate to fire at Hafir al Batin. Initial general direction would have been toward Riyadh. Assess as wrong target but dupe of #111.
116	14 Feb	1230	C ?	1	Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin	Fragment struck bldg/3 injuries		1		#111					Time was when spot report on debris received vice attack time. Clearly further info on #111 activity.
117	14 Feb	1915	C ?	3	Hafar [aka Hafir Al Batin] (KKMC)	Impact VII Corps sector/large pieces of debris fell in 5 areas/MOPP 4/no chem or injuries/150 meters from shower point		3		#111, #113				23	Cannot find entered time in either ref, both were after-the-fact summaries. No Scud activity at noted time. Description points to clear dupe of #111 and #113 for three missiles.
118	14 Feb	2045	C ?	1	KKMC	Civilian/KIA: warehse destroyed		1		#111				23	Time is late but single ref was labeled "Scud Launch Update." Description clearly indicates dupe of #111.
119	15 Feb	0834	Z	1	Hafir Al Batin	Minimal effect on friendly ops		1		#111				23	Refs are summaries with date-time groups on 15th. Noted this activity was first daylight Scud attack and first directed at Hafir al Batin, therefore clear dupes.
120	15 Feb	2301	Z	1	Al Jubayl	Impact 10NM SW/no damage	1							7	Four refs for this initial entry on this activity.
121	16 Feb	0200	C	1	Dharahn	Fell into Persian Gulf		1		#120				7	Target area wrong but time (C vs. Z) indicates dupe of #120. Single open source ref noted Scud toward Dhahran (~40 nm further S). Clearly same activity.
122	16 Feb	0202	C	1	Al Jubayl (SA)	Landed in water		1		#120				7	Time/locations indicate further info on #120 activity.
123	18 Feb	0215	Z	3	Dharahn	(none)			3	#2, #5				None	Month unclear in single ref. Time appears to point toward Jan vice Feb (false target engagements) in #2 and #5.
124	18 Feb	0215	Z	1	Al Khobar	Debris/damage E side of base			1	#2				None	Same single ref as for #123.
125	21 Feb	1000	Z	2	KKMC	(none)	2							24	Time almost certainly later than ref's "as of" time of 1000Z used for entry. No other evidence of activity at noted time. Assess as first entry on activity described in subsequent entries.
126	21 Feb	1406	Z	2	NE of KKMC	Intercepted by Patriots		2		#125				24	Better/more data on #125 activity based on date, target, and bulk of evidence.
127	21 Feb	1652	C?			(none)							1	None	Single entry reported air and Scud "activity" in Iraq but not launches. No other evidence of Scud launch until ~15 minutes later (assuming time = C). Assessed as not Scud firing (no-match event).
128	21 Feb	1707	C	2	KKMC/ Al Jubayl	Kill on 2 TBMs (1 exploded in flt)		2		#125				24	One ref noted two at KKMC and "no info on third - heading towards Al Jubayl." Bulk of info indicates two Scuds fired at KKMC and this is dupe of activity in #125 and subsequent.
129	21 Feb	1710	C	3	KKMC	2 intercepted/target 10mi NW		2		#125		1		24	Some sources indicate three vice two Scuds launched. Weight of evidence indicates two. Time indicates dupe of #125 and subsequent.
130	21 Feb	1800	Z	1	E of KKMC	Broke up/impact 50 km E	1							25	Was third missile of day at KKMC area. First entry on this corroborated attack.
131	21 Feb	1801	Z	1	KKMC	Impact 30 km SW of KKMC		1		#130				25	Different impact location from #130 probably was predicted vs. actual after breakup. Time points to dupe of #130.
132	21 Feb	1800	Z	1	Saudi (NFI)	U/I target/no sig. Damage		1		#130				25	Time establishes dupe of #130.
133	21 Feb	2102	C	1	Riyadh (toward)	Exploded early in flight		1		#130				25	Actual target probably KKMC vs. Riyadh.
134	21 Feb	2103	C	1	KKMC	Out of footprint		1		#130				25	Further info on #130 activity.
135	21 Feb	2111	C	2	KKMC	Patriots fired		1		#130		1		25	Bulk of evidence indicates only one missile and no Patriot engagement. Time points to dupe of #130.
136	21 Feb	2331	Z	3	Bahrain/ Dhahran	1 engaged over water/1 outside of Patriot range/1 broke up/no impact	3							8	Numerous refs to this activity with two Scuds hitting in Persian Gulf and one engaged with possible debris falling on Bahrain. First entry.
137	21 Feb	2331	Z	1	SA (undeter- mined)	No damage/injuries		1		#136				8	Time indicates further info on #136 activity.
138	21 Feb	2332	Z	1	Bahrain	Engaged by Patriot		1		#136				8	Time indicates further info on #136 activity.
139	21 Feb	2334	Z	1	Dhahran	No known damage		1		#136				8	Time indicates further info on #136 activity.
140	22 Feb	0233	C	3	Bahrain/ Dhahran	1 engaged/2 in gulf/debris @ Bahrain		3		#136				8	Note 22/0233C = 21/2333Z. Time indicates dupe of #136.
141	22 Feb	0234	C	2	Doha	1 engaged/1 overflew		2		#136				8	Note Doha is in southern Qatar. Scud engaged by Patriot battery in Bahrain. Time indicates further reflections of #136 events.
142	22 Feb	0245	C	1	Riyadh	(none)		1		#136				8	Two refs noted initially projected target of Riyadh or KKMC but actual impact E. of Dhahran. This and times indicate dupe of #136.
143	22 Feb	1406	Z	2	KKMC	1 engaged/1 malfunctioned		2		#125				24	"Period covered" in msg points to activity on 22nd but time, target, and description clearly point to event on 21st and hence dupe of #125. No other indications of Scud activity on 22nd.
144	22/3 Feb		?	3	KKMC	2 intercepted/1 exploded in flt		2		#125		1		24	Date-time group of ref was very early on 23rd but covered activity "in past 24 hours." Some refs noted three vs. two Scuds fired but bulk of evidence indicated two. Another dupe of #125 based on target and date.
145	22/3 Feb		?	2	Bahrain	1 intercepted/1 landed in Gulf		2		#136				8	Target and description clearly indicate dupe of #136 activity.
146	23 Feb	0159	Z	1+ (1)	Dhahran	No impacts detected	2							9	Ref noted one, possibly two, fired. Evidence favors two. First entry on corroborated event.
147	23 Feb	0459	C	2	Dhahran (toward)	Landed SW of Dhahran/ desert		2		#146				9	Target and time indicate dupe of #146. Taken together, evidence suggests one impact SW and one impact NW of Dhahran.
148	23 Feb	0503	C	1	Riyadh/ KKMC	(none)		1		#146				9	One ref notes at risk areas included Riyadh, KKMC, and Dhahran but that impact location was in Dhahran area. This and time point to dupe of #146.
149	23 Feb	0507	C	1	King Fadh	Impact 10 nm NE		1		#146				9	Time and location (Dhahran area) point to clear dupe of #146.
150	24 Feb	0132	Z	1	Riyadh	Damage to unocc. school @ 500m from Riyadh Sheraton	1							21	First valid ref to intercepted Scud that still caused damage.
151	24 Feb	0432	C	1	Riyadh	Intercepted by Patriots		1		#150				21	Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.
152	24 Feb	0435-8	C	1	Riyadh	Killed by Patriot/10km NW/W (?)		1		#150				21	Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.
153	24 Feb	0436	C	1	Riyadh	Destroyed by Patriot		1		#150				21	Time and location indicates further info on #150 activity.
154	24 Feb	0440	C	2	Riyadh/ Dhahran	No BDA		1		#150			1	21 and None	Time and target point to one dupe of #150. There is no corroboration for Scud at Dhahran at this time.
155	24 Feb	0917	Z	1	King Khalid AF	Fell SE of KKAF	1							26	Valid initial entry.
156	24 Feb	0917-8	Z	1	KKMC	Warhead kill/debris 10 nm E		1		#155				26	Time/area clearly indicates dupe of #155. Notes one Patriot killed Scud.
157	24 Feb	1218	C	3	KKMC	1 overflight/1 engaged/1??		1		#155		2		26	Cannot corroborate more than one Scud at this time. One ref recorded three Scuds for day (correct). One ref noted second Scud disappeared from radar (possibly debris). Assess two as inaccurate salvo size.
158	24 Feb	1225	C	2	KKMC	Report: Scud kill/no damage		1		#155		1		26	Cannot confirm more than one Scud at this time. One is dupe of #155 based on time/area.
159	24 Feb	1725	?	1	Riyadh	Mission kill	1							22	Time should be 1825Z vice 1725 as subsequent dupe entries make clear. Ref noted "approx 24/1725Z." Possible originator error in translating from local (C) time. No evidence of launch at 1725Z (or C). Valid first entry.
160	24 Feb	1823	Z	1	Riyadh	Scud destroyed		1		#159				22	Correct time for this activity.
161	24 Feb	2124	C	1	Riyadh	Damage to school		1		#159				22	Clear dupe of #159 with correct (C) time.
162	24 Feb	2125	C	1	Riyadh IAP	Warhead kill by Patriot		1		#159				22	A second impact may have been debris. Time/location mean dupe.
163	24 Feb	2126	C	1	KKMC	Engaged by Patriot/break up		1		#159				22	Refs cited for entry support Riyadh as target. One source noted projected impact just N of Riyadh but indicated KKMC at risk. Another source indicated one Scud engaged and another broke up in flight, but evidence supports one Scud.
164	24 Feb	2130	C	2	Riyadh	Engaged by Patriot		1		#159		1		22	Ref noted three Scuds for day (24th) with two at Riyadh (correct). Only second of these associated with this activity, hence one wrong salvo size.
165	25 Feb	1732	Z	1	Dhahran	(none)	1							10	Valid initial ref for one Scud not engaged by Patriots that caused more United States casualties than any other engagement in Gulf War when it hit warehouse/ barracks.
166	25 Feb	1736/ 2058	Z/C	1	Dhahran	Impacted United States barracks/burns/475 QM/GP: to 85th Evac Hospital		1		#165				10	Because of casualties, large number of refs to this activity continued for days as casualty figures were revised upward. Time and description mean dupe of #165.
167	25 Feb	1816	Z	1	Dhahran	Impact		1		#165				10	Further entry on #165 activity.
168	25 Feb	2034	C	1	Bahrain	Fell into ocean between sites		1		#165				10	Single ref for this entry noted impact in Gulf but also for same incident noted hit on barracks.
169	25 Feb	2200	Z	1	King Fahd	(none)	1							11	Single ref has "late entry" for 2200Z noting a launch, missile break-up, and multiple impacts including King Fahd Airport, Bahrain, and Persian Gulf off Qatar. Ref noted Saudis said missile landed in the Gulf at Doha (Qatar). Actual launch time was later than "late entry" - 2226Z on 25th (26/0126C) Valid initial cite for last confirmed Scud firing of Gulf War.
170	25 Feb	2200	Z	1	Bahrain	(none)			1	#165,#169				10, 11	In addition to same cite used to create #169, CURR refs for this entry include ops log noting three launches earlier at 1738-1742Z. Latter ref relates to #165 firing resulting in high casualties in a barracks. Bulk of evidence for #165 indicates only one Scud that may have broken up with part landing in the Persian Gulf. Probable dupe of two previous entries.
171	25 Feb	2200	Z		Doha	(none)		1		#169				11	Same CURR single "late entry" ref as for #169.
172	25 Feb	2226	Z	1	N. Saudi	(none)		1		#169				11	Ref for this entry notes Iraqi launch threatening northern KTO. Date/time confirm dupe of #169.
173	25/6 Feb	0400	Z		Riyadh	Destroyed by Patriot			1	#159				22	CURR time entry is date-time group of msg reporting on earlier activity (reporting period for Feb 25th Z). However, activity suggests reporting on Feb 24 attack on Riyadh (#159). The cited summary of activity did not note late 25th devastating hit on barracks. No other sources report firing on this target on Feb 25.
174			?	1	Hafar [aka Hafir] Al Batin	Destroyed by Patriot			1	#155				26	Same ref as #173 for Feb 25th Z - likely dupe of firing against KKMC on 24th. No other sources report firing on this target on Feb 25.
175	26 Feb	0126-9	C	1	Doha/Qatar	Impact 40 nm N of Doha		1		#169				11	Note 26/0126C = 25/2226Z. Cites are further reporting on activity first noted in #169.
176	26 Feb	0130	C	1	Dhahran/ Qatar	Scud fell into Persian Gulf		1		#169				11	Ref notes about 1:30 a.m. on Feb 26 one Scud was fired toward Dhahran or possibly Qatar. Note ~1:30 AM (C) on 26th = 2226Z on Feb 25. Clear dupe of last Scud firing.
177	26 Feb	0600	?	1	Damman	Al Kobar [aka Khobar] Village (40 MIA)		1		#165				10	Refs note hit on Khobar warehouse and high casualties - clear late reporting/update on barracks disaster.
178	26 Feb	1558	C ?	2	Dhahran	(none)							2	None	Hand log noted two launches at about 1558 on Feb 26 (with azimuths threatening Israel and E. KTO). However, additional ref notes continuing analysis of data on 26/1557 activity indicates an explosion was involved rather than a launch. No other refs to this activity. Non-launch event.
179	26 Feb	2032	C	1	Dhahran	Billeting/AUJAN/475th POL		1		#165				10	Further update reporting on barracks hit and casualties make this clear dupe of #165.
				344		<=TOTALS=>	46	202	30		27	33	6

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