[Back]

[Index]

[Next]

---

Don't debate. . . Once debate begins, things become complicated.

Deng Xiaoping

CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

MICHAEL PILLSBURY

January 2000

National Defense University Press
Washington, DC

---

Contents

PREFACE
PROLOGUE 

1. THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE 

The Current Assessment, 1986-99
Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986
Revisionist Multipolarity

Challenging the Orthodox View
The Orthodox Counterattack

Techniques for Showing Dissent
Differences Within the Orthodox Camp
Post-Kosovo Debate 
Shanghai's Elaborate Studies
Fifty-Year Structures
Future Wars

Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars
Sources of Wars
Deng Xiaoping Thought

China's Role in Multipolarity
Findings

The Basic Framework
Debates
Regional Wars 

2. AMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE 

Failure to Implement the RMA
Future Military Weaknesses
Weakness in Logistics
North Korea Can Defeat America 
Weaknesses in the Gulf War
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities
Overall U.S. Decline
Loss of Allies
Self-Prophecy of Decline
Lord of the Earth
Findings 

3. JAPAN AND INDIA: DANGEROUS DEMOCRACIES 

The Inevitable Rise of Japan and India
Japan

Future Rivalries
Contrasting Views
Future Militarism 
Impact of Militarism
He Xin: A Dissenting View
Military Development

India 

A Future Asian Great Power? 
Instability in South Asia
Historical Rivalries 
The Enduring Relevance of History

Findings 

4. A WEAK RUSSIA'S FUTURE 

Rely on China
Debates on Russia
Development and Recovery
Dangers in the Future Security Environment
Russia's Response 
Influence of the Kosovo Crisis 
Sino-Russian Relations 
Military Development 
"Secret" RMA Efforts 
Implications of the Soviet Collapse 
American Subversion? 
Moscow's Own Fault 
Findings 

5. GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS 

The Orthodox Versus the Reform
Origins 
Ancient Chinese Strategists as Antecedents 
Modern Beginnings 

Qualitative Factors 

High-Technology Warfare 
Economic Rivalries 
Strategy and Structure 
Grand Strategy

Quantitative Factors

The CASS Index Framework 
The AMS Index System 
Foreign Methods 
The CASS Weighted Index Plan
The AMS Dynamic Equation 
Calculating the Rise and Decline of Nations

Forecasts: Winners and Losers in 2020 

CASS 
AMS 
CNP Versus GDP Forecasts 
Other Predictions

Findings 

6. FORECASTING FUTURE WARS

Where Will Local Wars Occur? 
What Kind of Wars Could Affect China? 
Institutional Affiliations of the Three Schools 
Force Structure and the Three Schools 

People's War School 
Local War School 
The RMA Advocates

Three Mutually Exclusive Scenarios 
The RMA in China

RMA Forecasts 
The RMA and the United States 
Asymmetric War 
Advocates 
Proposals and Programs 
National Conferences

Asymmetric Warfare

Strategy 
Sea Power 
Air Power 
Nanotechnology Weapons 
"Magic Weapons"

Combat Concepts 
Defense Investment Decisions

Resource Allocation 
Investments Recommended by RMA Advocates 
Investments Recommended by Power Projections Advocates 
Investments Recommended by People's War Advocates 

Findings 

7. CONCLUSIONS  

Multiple Debates  

The Rate of Multipolarization  
The Pace of U.S. Decline  
The Future Powers  
The Roles of Japan and Russia  
Future Wars 

A Clear Picture  
Warring States  
America's Decline  
Future National Power
Threats from Japan and India  
Partnership with Russia  
Forecasting Future Wars  
Sensitive Debates 

ACRONYMS 
CHINESE LANGUAGE BIBLIOGRAPHY 
APPENDIX 1: THE DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 
APPENDIX 2: ASSESSMENT INSTITUTIONS 
INDEX OF CHINESE AUTHORS 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR

[Back]

[Index]

[Next]