Title: East-West "Giants' On Collison Course Underlying Causes For Future Us-China Conflict
Subject: Future Us-China relations in context of underlying sources of conflict and four assumptions
Author(s): Michael J Wallace
DTIC Keywords: CATALYTIC CONFLICT(WARFARE), CHINA, CONFLICT, CONVENTIONAL WARFARE, EAST WEST RELATIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, LIMITED WARFARE, SOUTH CHINA SEA, WAR POTENTIAL
Abstract:
The concept of a non-liberal China continuing to grow anywhere near its current
rates economically and militarily is viewed with a mixture of reactions: from
fear to acceptance, to skepticism and cynicism, and an outright desire to stop
it from happening. With about 21% of the world's population, China has the
potential to exert a tremendous influence in the international scene as the
state of flux recedes and the next world order emerges. The Pacific Rim
continues to grow in importance to the United States, as delineated in the most
recent National Security Strategy. Understanding the political, cultural, and
warfare philosophy of China will aid immeasurably to charting the future course
to take in the relations assuming China continues to rise in power. A suitable
framework, furnished by relevant theories fashioned in light of the dynamic and
complex world, is necessary to facilitate the navigation through the underlying
sources of conflict.
Two modern-day theorists, Doyle and Huntington, have significantly contributed
to differing aspects that are worth considering in regard to potential conflict
between the US and China over miscommunications and misperceptions. Doyle looks
at the inherent tensions between powerful liberal and non-liberal states. Many
missed opportunities to pursue mutual advancement of strategic interests and a
general reduction in tensions through accommodation is evident. This leads to
increased probability of conflict at the expense of peace rather than resolve
underlying causes of conflict proactively. Huntington clearly delineates the
inherent dangers of the interactions between two civilizations that can lead to
conflict. He also outlines the dangerous path the West is pursuing in advancing
its culture throughout the world. Conflict could come through a blast of
cultural backlash when the "right spark" ignites the equivalent of oil on water
mixture.
This research paper analyzes selected historic and projected trends of China
relevant to its troubled relationship with the US, applies the theories of Doyle
and Huntington to focus and support the argument, and conducts an analysis of
US/China relationship against the backdrop of the Tiananmen Square tragedy. This
project concludes with three potential future alternatives where certain
underlying causes of war lead to hostilities between the US and China along with
some closing conclusions and recommendations to minimize their happenstance.
These potential scenarios underscore the importance of exploring "the causes of
war" in the context of an evolving world order in order to achieve national
security objectives short of war. Against the possibility of military
hostilities, these ideals can be used to focus contingency planning, enhance the
realism of military training, and improve the development and implementation of
a conflict termination strategy to establish a more stable environment and
lasting state of peace.
Chapter 1 provides an overview of US/China relations along with four
assumptions. Chapter 2 establishes a framework, using the theories of Doyle and
Huntington, regarding potential misunderstandings and conflict in the US/China
relationship. Chapter 3 uses a case study to highlight certain embedded
"sparking points" through miscommunications and misperceptions as well as
potential ones elevated by current US policy as China continues its assumed
growth towards being a "Great Power." Finally, Chapter 4 concludes with three
alternative futures of US/China conflict with some conclusions and
recommendations to decrease their probability of occurrence.