DATE=6/2/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA SUMMIT / NUCLEAR
NUMBER=5-46428
BYLINE=EVE CONANT
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO:  When President Bill Clinton arrives in Moscow 
for a summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin, 
arms control will be at the top of the agenda. Russia, 
fresh from ratifying the START-Two arms reduction 
treaty as well as a global ban on nuclear testing, is 
pushing for further arms cuts with a START-Three 
accord. Moscow correspondent Eve Conant looks at why 
Russia is pushing for such drastic reductions in its 
nuclear arsenal. 

TEXT:   The Moscow summit was at first heralded as a 
meeting where the United States and Russia might agree 
to further cut their nuclear stockpiles with a 
modified START-Three accord. There was hope the two 
countries might even strike an agreement to amend the 
1972 ABM treaty, allowing the United States to build 
its desired nuclear defense shield. 

But that was several weeks ago. 

Now officials on both sides are scrambling to lower 
expectations. They say there will be no breakthroughs 
in arms talks but that some minor agreements might be 
signed, such as establishing a joint early warning 
missile system, and reaching an accord on the 
destruction of 34 metric tons of weapons-grade 
plutonium, which is enough to produce tens of 
thousands of nuclear weapons. 

The heart of the disagreement is two-fold. Russia does 
not want the United States to build a nuclear defense 
shield. The Kremlin argues the shield would undermine 
decades of arms initiatives and could even launch a 
new arms race.

/// opt /// President Putin did, however, tell a 
western television network (NBC) late Thursday that 
Russia would propose jointly developing a nuclear 
defense shield with the United States when he meets 
with President Clinton. /// end opt /// 

The United States, however, does not want to lower its 
nuclear arsenal to as low as fifteen hundred warheads, 
which Russia has proposed  as part of an enhanced 
START-Three accord. Independent Defense analyst Pavel 
Felgenhauer says Russia's economic situation is 
forcing it to consider drastically cutting its 
arsenal. 

///Act Felgenhauer///

Right now, and in the foreseeable future, Russia will 
not have the economic resources to maintain a big 
number of ICBM's. Of course, we can have lots of 
warheads, the problem is not warheads but delivery 
systems. Our old Soviet-made delivery systems are 
getting old and will have to be scrapped inevitably 
and we'll have to build new ones and we don't have 
enough money to do that. /// opt /// No rocket can 
live forever, it has to be scrapped in the end. The 
reality check for the Russian strategic nuclear 
deterrent will come somewhere beginning from 2003 to 
2010. /// end opt ///
 
///End Act///

///OPT/// Mr. Felgenhauer argues Russia is simply 
using the ABM debate to get more concessions from the 
United States. 

///Second Act Felgenhauer/// /// opt act ///

The Russian military are actually not afraid at all of 
the Americans building a national missile defense. The 
Russian military knows that in the coming one or two 
decades such a system will not be in any way able to 
negate the Russian nuclear deterrent. Up to now the 
Russian official on ABM negotiations was to listen to 
American proposals, say no to everything and virtually 
press the United States to break out of the ABM treaty 
and then expose the United States to the world and to 
its European allies as a villain of the peace, as a 
country that doesn't keep international arms control 
agreements.

///End Act///  ///End opt///

Lieutenant Vasily Lata, a researcher with the military 
academy of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, says 
arms reduction is needed now. He says the service life 
of both Russia's land-based and sea-based 
intercontinental ballistic missiles has run out and 
Mr. Lata is angry that arms reduction is being linked 
to what he calls an unacceptable U-S proposal to amend 
the ABM treaty. 

///Act Lata in Russian in full and fade under///

Mr. Lata says, "it's not right to trade the issue of 
reducing nuclear weapons with the issue of abandoning 
or altering the ABM treaty. Arms reduction talks must 
be held separately from this."

Political researcher Ivan Safranchuk says Russia's 
position is weakened by Mr. Clinton's knowledge that 
Moscow's hands are tied because of finances.

///Act Safranchuk in Russian in full and fade under///

"It is clear what we can afford," he says. "Even an 
optimistic estimate shows Russia, by the year 2008, 
will barely be able to afford fifteen hundred 
warheads."

While there is little expectation of an agreement over 
arms cuts and changes, or what some U-S officials are 
describing as "strengthening" of the ABM treaty, there 
is a chance for some smaller accords on the nuclear 
front. The two sides hope to clinch a deal to destroy 
34 tons of military-grade plutonium.

Russian and United States officials will also be 
discussing the possible development of a joint missile 
launch early-warning system. Such a system might help 
to enhance trust between the two sides, but would fall 
short of the deals that experts were expecting from 
this first face-to-face meeting between the two 
leaders since President Putin was elected in March. 
(Signed)

NEB/EC/GE 



02-Jun-2000 06:38 AM EDT (02-Jun-2000 1038 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.