Russian defense chief stalls START

Bill Gertz WASHINGTON TIMES 13 May 1997

Russian Defense Minister Igor Rodionov continues to
oppose ratification of the START II arms treaty even
though the United States offered concessions at the recent
Helsinki summit aimed at winning parliamentary approval,
according to a report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. 

"Rodionov continues to oppose ratifying START II, even
after Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin agreed in Helsinki to
compromise on the conditions for implementing the treaty," the
DIA said in a May 6 report prepared for the U.S. visit of Mr.
Rodionov, who arrived yesterday.

"Rodionov has not publicly endorsed this compromise,"
the DIA said. "Moreover, he has not been willing to lobby for
the treaty in the legislature -- a key test of his support. Unless
the military strongly supports the treaty, Russia probably will
not ratify it."

A senior DIA official had no comment on the report.

Russia's failure to ratify the treaty, which originally called
for cutting U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals to less than
3,500 warheads by 2003, would be a major setback for the
Clinton administration arms control agenda.

At the Helsinki summit, which ended April 23, Mr.
Clinton and Mr. Yeltsin agreed to extend the deadline for
dismantling strategic missiles and silos under START II to
2007 to accommodate Moscow's complaints it could not
afford to pay for the weapons cuts by the original deadline.

The Senate ratified the treaty in January 1996 but ordered
that no reductions in U.S. strategic nuclear forces begin until
the Duma, Russia's parliament, approved the treaty.

Russian ratification of START II will be a key topic of
discussion today when Defense Secretary William S. Cohen
holds talks at the Pentagon with Mr. Rodionov. The Russian
defense minister later is scheduled to meet National Security
Adviser Samuel R. Berger and Secretary of State Madeleine
K. Albright before visiting U.S. military bases. His visit ends
Saturday.

The DIA report, labeled "secret," appears in the
Pentagon's Military Intelligence Digest, an intelligence
periodical.

The report, written by DIA analyst Robert Otto, says Mr.
Rodionov has "maintained a studied public silence" on the
agreement extending the START II deadline. "The absence of
his endorsement suggests that the compromise on START II
implementation -- extending the deadline for destroying the
missiles -- has not lessened his opposition."

According to the report, Mr. Rodionov told U.S.
Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering in August that his
two concerns about START II are "the implementation time
line and its focus on eliminating land-based MIRVs" -- as
multiple-warhead missiles are called.

Under START II, Russia will be required to dismantle all
308 of its most potent nuclear missiles, the 10-warhead SS-18.

"Rodionov's opposition to START II ratification clearly
demonstrates that each U.S. arms-control concession to
Moscow leads to a new Russian demand, whether it's START,
chemical weapons, conventional forces, NATO, or missile
defenses," said Sven Kraemer, director of arms control on the
National Security Council staff during the Reagan
administration.

Mr. Rodionov also opposes treaty ratification because of
NATO's plan to add new members and opposes a second
arms agreement, also reached in Helsinki, regarding
clarification of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty on regional
anti-missile systems, the DIA report said.

According to DIA, "a close Rodionov ally" told U.S.
officials START II ratification is closely linked to "adherence
with the ABM treaty."

Since the two presidents reached the ABM side
agreement in Helsinki, Russia's military chief of staff, Gen.
Victor Samsonov, "has maintained much work needs to be
done" before a final agreement is signed in Geneva, and
Russia's Foreign Ministry "has challenged the U.S.
interpretation of the ABM joint statement" reached at the
summit, the DIA said.

"Rodionov quite likely shares the underlying Russian
concern that the United States will develop the capability to
build a nationwide ballistic missile defense," the report says.
"This concern would reinforce his own long-standing
reservations about START II."
 
On NATO expansion, Mr. Rodionov has taken a hard
line. He believes that adding members from Central Europe
adds a "strategic dimension" to NATO's tactical nuclear arms
that threatens "START I, START II, and even a START III,"
the report says.

Clinton administration officials have said that they would
consider an agreement to cut strategic arsenals to as low as
2,000 warheads, but that Moscow must first ratify START II.

The DIA report says it is significant that Mr. Rodionov
has never lobbied for parliament ratification, did not testify on
behalf of the treaty and has not worked behind the scenes to
win approval. A Russian legislator who favors the treaty said
Mr. Rodionov called START II a "criminal agreement" and
"agreement of betrayal."

The report says Mr. Rodionov's key political ally, Lev
Rokhlin, who was described by the DIA as "Rodionov's
mouthpiece," has opposed treaty ratification even after the
Helsinki concessions.

Mr. Yeltsin said during the Helsinki summit that he
expected the Duma to approve the treaty, acting on his advice.

Mr. Rodionov may be receptive to a possible START III
treaty, but has not stated specific preferences for any
provisions of a follow-on accord, the DIA said. "In any cases,
unless START II receives strong support from the military, the
Duma will not ratify," the report said.

Copyright © 1997 News World Communications, Inc.