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DATE=12/10/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42101 TITLE= RUSSIA / START-TWO BYLINE=GIL BUTLER DATELINE=MOSCOW CONTENT= VOICED AT: /// EDS: PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE SCHEDULED TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH /// INTRO: THE LOWER HOUSE OF RUSSIA'S PARLIAMENT IS TO DEBATE RATIFICATION OF THE START-TWO NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT TREATY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE U-S SENATE RATIFIED THE TREATY IN 1996, RUSSIA'S COMMUNIST-DOMINATED LOWER HOUSE, OR DUMA, HAS HELD BACK, DESPITE PRESSURE FROM PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN FOR RATIFICATION. V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER IN MOSCOW HAS THIS REPORT ON A TREATY THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT WANTS RATIFIED, BUT PARLIAMENT HAS BLOCKED UNTIL NOW. TEXT: WHEN THE RATIFICATION DEBATE BEGINS IT WILL NATURALLY CENTER ON WHETHER START-TWO IS GOOD FOR RUSSIA. RUSSIA'S PRESENT GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY LEADERS ARGUE THAT START-TWO IS IN RUSSIA'S BEST INTEREST. UNDER THE TREATY, THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA SCRAP ONE-HALF OF THEIR NUCLEAR WARHEADS FROM THE CURRENT SIX-THOUSAND TO THREE-THOUSAND TO 35-HUNDRED EACH. /// OPT /// TREATY SUPPORTERS SAY MANY OF RUSSIA'S OLD WARHEADS ARE NEARING THE END OF THEIR USEFUL LIFE, ANYWAY. RUSSIA'S SCRAPPING OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER THE START-ONE TREATY IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED WITH AMERICAN FINANCING. THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE DISMANTLING REQUIRED UNDER START-TWO. /// END OPT /// THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE DUMA'S FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE -- ALEXEI PODBERYOZKIN -- SAYS START-TWO IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE EARLIER AGREEMENTS REACHED DURING THE COLD WAR. /// PODBERYOZKIN ACT /// WELL, I BELIEVE EVEN MORE BECAUSE NOWADAYS WE ARE TALKING AND DOING REAL REDUCTION OF NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS. TWENTY YEARS AGO WE DISCUSSED THE PROBLEM OF HOW TO STOP THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE. NOWADAYS, THIS NEW TREATY IS A REAL TREATY FOR REDUCTION OF THE WARHEADS AND THE MISSILES THEMSELVES. /// END ACT /// RUSSIA'S MAIN STRATEGIC FORCE IS IN INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES. THE UNITED STATES RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON SUBMARINE- LAUNCHED MISSILES. TREATY OPPONENTS SAY START-TWO, WITH ITS EMPHASIS ON MISSILE WARHEADS, IS WEIGHTED AGAINST RUSSIA. BUT A SCHOLAR WITH THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTER, ALEXANDER PIKAYEV, SAYS THAT ON THE WHOLE, THE TREATY WILL IMPROVE RUSSIA'S SECURITY SITUATION. /// PIKAYEV ACT /// IF WE LOOK AT THE WHOLE RANGE OF THE DOCUMENTS -- THE START-TWO TREATY, THE A-B-M TREATY, AND FUTURE START-THREE, WHICH WOULD HOPEFULLY REQUIRE FURTHER REDUCTION OF STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA -- AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE THREE DOCUMENTS AS A WHOLE PACKAGE, IT WOULD BE JUSTIFIABLE TO SAY THAT THE START-TWO RATIFICATION WOULD BE VERY IMPORTANT ELEMENT IN IMPROVING RUSSIA'S SECURITY SITUATION. /// END ACT /// THE RUSSIAN DUMA BILL OF RATIFICATION REPORTEDLY CONTAINS WHAT THE RUSSIANS CALL AMENDMENTS TO THE TREATY. MR. PODBERYOZKIN SAYS THEY WOULD CANCEL THE TREATY IF NATO THREATENED RUSSIA OR IF THE UNITED STATES VIOLATES THE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE -- OR A-B-M -- TREATY. /// PODBERYOZKIN ACT /// THE FIRST THING THAT BOTHERS US VERY MUCH IS THAT THE EXPANSION OF NATO MAY CHANGE THE WHOLE STRATEGIC SITUATION IN EUROPE. TACTICAL SYSTEMS MAY BECOME STRATEGIC FOR RUSSIA IF THEY ARE DEPLOYED -- FOR EXAMPLE -- IN POLAND. /// END ACT /// MANY RUSSIAN POLITICIANS SAY THE DUMA IS WITHIN ITS RIGHTS TO AMEND THE TREATY SINCE -- IN THEIR VIEW -- THE UNITED STATES SENATE ATTACHED RESERVATIONS WHEN IT RATIFIED START-TWO IN 1996. AMERICAN DIPLOMATS EXPLAIN THAT THE SENATE'S NON-BINDING RESERVATIONS DID NOT AFFECT THE SUBSTANCE OF THE TREATY. IN THE AMERICAN VIEW, THE DUMA AMENDMENTS ARE A MATTER BETWEEN THE PARLIAMENT AND THE YELTSIN ADMINISTRATION AND DO NOT AFFECT THE TERMS OF THE START-TWO TREATY ITSELF. IF START-TWO CLEARS THE DUMA DESPITE OPPOSITION FROM THE COMMUNISTS, IT WILL GO TO THE UPPER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT WHERE ITS RATIFICATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN. MR. PIKAYEV SAYS IT IS NOT LIKELY THE START-TWO TREATY CAN BE RATIFIED IN THE DUMA NEXT WEEK. /// PIKAYEV ACT /// A MORE REALISTIC TIME WOULD BE DECEMBER 18TH OR PROBABLY CHRISTMAS EVE, DECEMBER 25TH (SIC; SHOULD HAVE SAID DECEMBER 24). IF SO IT WOULD BE A PERFECT CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. /// END ACT /// U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT SAID THIS WEEK SHE HOPES TO BEGIN THE NEW START-THREE NUCLEAR REDUCTION TALKS WHEN SHE VISITS MOSCOW IN JANUARY. (SIGNED) NEB/MGB/JWH/GE 10-Dec-98 9:15 AM EST (1415 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .