DATE=12/10/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42101
TITLE= RUSSIA / START-TWO
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

///  EDS:  PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE SCHEDULED TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH 
                               ///

INTRO:  THE LOWER HOUSE OF RUSSIA'S PARLIAMENT IS TO DEBATE 
RATIFICATION OF THE START-TWO NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT TREATY NEXT 
WEEK.  ALTHOUGH THE U-S SENATE RATIFIED THE TREATY IN 1996, 
RUSSIA'S COMMUNIST-DOMINATED LOWER HOUSE, OR DUMA, HAS HELD BACK,
DESPITE PRESSURE FROM PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN FOR RATIFICATION.  
V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER IN MOSCOW HAS THIS REPORT ON A TREATY THE 
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT WANTS RATIFIED, BUT PARLIAMENT HAS BLOCKED 
UNTIL NOW.

TEXT:  WHEN THE RATIFICATION DEBATE BEGINS IT WILL NATURALLY 
CENTER ON WHETHER START-TWO IS GOOD FOR RUSSIA.

RUSSIA'S PRESENT GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY LEADERS ARGUE THAT 
START-TWO IS IN RUSSIA'S BEST INTEREST.  UNDER THE TREATY, THE 
UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA SCRAP ONE-HALF OF THEIR NUCLEAR WARHEADS
FROM THE CURRENT SIX-THOUSAND TO THREE-THOUSAND TO 35-HUNDRED 
EACH. 

///  OPT  ///   TREATY SUPPORTERS SAY MANY OF RUSSIA'S OLD 
WARHEADS ARE NEARING THE END OF THEIR USEFUL LIFE, ANYWAY.  
RUSSIA'S SCRAPPING OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER THE START-ONE TREATY 
IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED WITH AMERICAN FINANCING.  THE SAME IS 
EXPECTED TO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE DISMANTLING REQUIRED
UNDER START-TWO.   ///  END OPT  ///

THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE DUMA'S FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE -- 
ALEXEI PODBERYOZKIN -- SAYS START-TWO IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN
THE EARLIER AGREEMENTS REACHED DURING THE COLD WAR.

                   ///  PODBERYOZKIN ACT  ///

         WELL, I BELIEVE EVEN MORE BECAUSE NOWADAYS WE ARE 
         TALKING AND DOING REAL REDUCTION OF NUCLEAR ARMAMENTS.  
         TWENTY YEARS AGO WE DISCUSSED THE PROBLEM OF HOW TO STOP
         THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE.  NOWADAYS, THIS NEW TREATY IS A 
         REAL TREATY FOR REDUCTION OF THE WARHEADS AND THE 
         MISSILES THEMSELVES.

                        ///  END ACT  ///

RUSSIA'S MAIN STRATEGIC FORCE IS IN INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC 
MISSILES.  THE UNITED STATES RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON SUBMARINE- 
LAUNCHED MISSILES.  

TREATY OPPONENTS SAY START-TWO, WITH ITS EMPHASIS ON MISSILE 
WARHEADS, IS WEIGHTED AGAINST RUSSIA.  BUT A SCHOLAR WITH THE 
MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTER, ALEXANDER PIKAYEV, SAYS THAT ON THE 
WHOLE, THE TREATY WILL IMPROVE RUSSIA'S SECURITY SITUATION.

                      ///  PIKAYEV ACT  ///

         IF WE LOOK AT THE WHOLE RANGE OF THE DOCUMENTS -- THE 
         START-TWO TREATY, THE A-B-M TREATY, AND FUTURE 
         START-THREE, WHICH WOULD HOPEFULLY REQUIRE FURTHER 
         REDUCTION OF STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS OF THE UNITED 
         STATES AND RUSSIA -- AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE THREE 
         DOCUMENTS AS A WHOLE PACKAGE, IT WOULD BE JUSTIFIABLE TO
         SAY THAT THE START-TWO RATIFICATION WOULD BE VERY 
         IMPORTANT ELEMENT IN IMPROVING RUSSIA'S SECURITY 
         SITUATION.

                        ///  END ACT  ///

THE RUSSIAN DUMA BILL OF RATIFICATION REPORTEDLY CONTAINS WHAT 
THE RUSSIANS CALL AMENDMENTS TO THE TREATY.  MR. PODBERYOZKIN 
SAYS THEY WOULD CANCEL THE TREATY IF NATO THREATENED RUSSIA OR IF
THE UNITED STATES VIOLATES THE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE -- OR A-B-M
-- TREATY.

                   ///  PODBERYOZKIN ACT  ///

         THE FIRST THING THAT BOTHERS US VERY MUCH IS THAT THE 
         EXPANSION OF NATO MAY CHANGE THE WHOLE STRATEGIC 
         SITUATION IN EUROPE.  TACTICAL SYSTEMS MAY BECOME 
         STRATEGIC FOR RUSSIA IF THEY ARE DEPLOYED -- FOR EXAMPLE
         -- IN POLAND.

                         /// END ACT ///

MANY RUSSIAN POLITICIANS SAY THE DUMA IS WITHIN ITS RIGHTS TO 
AMEND THE TREATY SINCE -- IN THEIR VIEW -- THE UNITED STATES 
SENATE ATTACHED RESERVATIONS WHEN IT RATIFIED START-TWO IN 1996. 
AMERICAN DIPLOMATS EXPLAIN THAT THE SENATE'S NON-BINDING 
RESERVATIONS DID NOT AFFECT THE SUBSTANCE OF THE TREATY.  IN THE 
AMERICAN VIEW, THE DUMA AMENDMENTS ARE A MATTER BETWEEN THE 
PARLIAMENT AND THE YELTSIN ADMINISTRATION AND DO  NOT  AFFECT THE
TERMS OF THE START-TWO TREATY ITSELF.

IF START-TWO CLEARS THE DUMA DESPITE OPPOSITION FROM THE 
COMMUNISTS, IT WILL GO TO THE UPPER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT WHERE ITS
RATIFICATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN.

MR. PIKAYEV SAYS IT IS  NOT  LIKELY THE START-TWO TREATY CAN BE 
RATIFIED IN THE DUMA NEXT WEEK.

                      ///  PIKAYEV ACT  ///

         A MORE REALISTIC TIME WOULD BE DECEMBER 18TH OR PROBABLY
         CHRISTMAS EVE, DECEMBER 25TH (SIC; SHOULD HAVE SAID 
         DECEMBER 24).  IF SO IT WOULD BE A PERFECT CHRISTMAS 
         GIFT FOR THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION.

                        ///  END ACT  ///

U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT SAID THIS WEEK SHE  
HOPES TO BEGIN THE NEW START-THREE NUCLEAR REDUCTION TALKS WHEN 
SHE VISITS MOSCOW IN JANUARY.  (SIGNED)

NEB/MGB/JWH/GE

10-Dec-98 9:15 AM EST (1415 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.