DATE=8/27/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41242
TITLE=MOSCOW SUMMIT/ARMS CONTROL
BYLINE=DAVID GOLLUST
DATELINE=WHITE HOUSE
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

///EDS: SUMMIT SCENESETTER FOR USE THROUGH MONDAY///

INTRO: THOUGH NEXT WEEK'S CLINTON-YELTSIN SUMMIT WILL BE 
DOMINATED BY THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS, THE TWO LEADERS HAVE 
CRITICAL BUSINESS TO DO ON ARMS CONTROL. EFFORTS TO REDUCE 
STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE HIT A ROADBLOCK IN THE RUSSIAN 
DUMA (LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT). V-O-A'S WHITE HOUSE 
CORRESPONDENT DAVID GOLLUST HAS MORE.

TEXT: THE ONCE-PROMISING U-S/RUSSIAN DIALOGUE ON NUCLEAR ARMS 
CONTROL HAS FALLEN VICTIM TO THE POLITICAL TURMOIL IN MOSCOW. AND
U-S OFFICIALS AND POLICY ANALYSTS ALIKE ARE GLOOMY ABOUT CHANCES 
THAT THE MOSCOW SUMMIT CAN PUT THINGS BACK ON TRACK.

AT ISSUE IS THE START-TWO STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY, SIGNED
IN 1993.  IT IS INTENDED TO CUT THE ARSENALS OF THE TWO SIDES BY 
NEARLY HALF -- TO NO MORE TO THAN 35-HUNDRED WARHEADS EACH.

PERHAPS THE MOST FAR-REACHING ARMS DEAL IN HISTORY, START-TWO WAS
RATIFIED BY THE U-S SENATE IN 1996. BUT IT HAS STALLED IN THE 
DUMA, WHICH IS CONTROLLED BY YELTSIN OPPONENTS ANGRY OVER NATO 
EXPANSION AND THE HIGH COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING THE TREATY.

PRESIDENT CLINTON HAD FIRST SAID HE WOULD NOT TRAVEL TO MOSCOW 
UNLESS  THE DUMA RATIFIED START-TWO. BUT HE BACKED AWAY FROM THAT
STANCE AFTER IT BECAME APPARENT IT HAD NOT HELPED RATIFICATION 
PROSPECTS.

HOW TO GET AROUND THE IMPASSE HAS DIVIDED U-S EXPERTS. BAKER 
SPRING, SENIOR ARMS CONTROL ANALYST AT WASHINGTON'S CONSERVATIVE 
HERITAGE FOUNDATION, SAYS PRESIDENT CLINTON SHOULD MAKE CLEAR 
THAT THE UNITED STATES -- UNLIKE THE KREMLIN -- CAN AFFORD TO 
KEEP ITS NUCLEAR FORCES AT CURRENT LEVELS:

                     ///SPRING ACTUALITY///

         I THINK WHAT HE'S GOT TO DO IS BRING PRESSURE BEAR ON 
         THE RUSSIANS SO THAT THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT WILL HAPPEN 
         WITHOUT RUSSIAN DUMA  RATIFICATION OF START-TWO. AND 
         THAT MEANS REQUESTING ADDITIONAL FUNDS FOR KEEPING THE 
         U-S NUCLEAR ARSENAL AT THE START LEVEL -- SOMEWHAT MORE 
         THAN SIX THOUSAND WARHEADS -- AS OPPOSED TO THE 
         35-HUNDRED WARHEADS THAT WOULD BE THE CEILING UNDER 
         START-TWO -- AND SAY THAT THE UNITED STATES SPECIFICALLY
         WILL NOT UNILATERALLY GO AHEAD WITH REDUCTIONS THAT 
         WOULD OTHERWISE BE REQUIRED BY THE TREATY.

                          ///END ACT///

HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT OF THE WASHINGTON-BASED ARMS CONTROL 
ASSOCIATION -- SPURGEON KEENY -- SAYS MR. CLINTON SHOULD TRY TO 
ADDRESS SOME OF THE CONCERNS OF DUMA MEMBERS, INCLUDING 
APPREHENSION THAT NATO MIGHT EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE FORMER 
SOVIET UNION INCLUDING THE BALTIC STATES:

                      ///KEENY ACTUALITY///

         THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT THE DUMA LOOKS TO INCLUSION OF 
         THE BALTIC STATES, FOR EXAMPLE, AS AN EXTREMELY HOSTILE,
         DIRECT CONFRONTATION WITH THEM. AND I THINK IT'S QUITE 
         WITHIN THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENT TO GIVE REASSURANCES 
         THAT THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE BY NO MEANS MADE UP OUR 
         MIND ON AND IT'S GOING TO BE A DECISION FOR THE FUTURE.

                          ///END ACT///

JOHN ISAACS, PRESIDENT OF THE LIBERAL ADVOCACY GROUP "COUNCIL FOR
A LIVABLE WORLD" SAYS THAT WITH BOTH MR. CLINTON AND YELTSIN 
POLITICALLY WEAKENED, THERE IS LITTLE HOPE THEY CAN BUDGE THE 
DUMA. MR. ISAACS TOLD V-O-A THERE ARE MANY STEPS THE TWO LEADERS 
CAN TAKE ON THEIR OWN -- INCLUDING TAKING WEAPONS OFF ALERT --  
TO REDUCE A NUCLEAR DANGER HE SAYS IS GROWING BECAUSE OF THE 
RUSSIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS:

                     ///ISAACS ACTUALITY///

         THE SECURITY SITUATION CLEARLY IS NOT VERY GOOD WITHIN 
         RUSSIA. THE MILITARY IS NOT BEING PAID. SECURITY AROUND 
         NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND NUCLEAR MISSILES IS SOMETIMES LESS
         THAN ADEQUATE. IF THE COUNTRY FURTHER DETERIORATES IN 
         THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, WHO KNOWS WHAT THE 
         SECURITY SITUATION WILL BE VIS-A-VIS THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
         FORCE IN RUSSIA. IT'S PARAMOUNT THAT CLINTON AND YELTSIN
         TAKE ACTION -- AGAIN UNILATERAL EXECUTIVE ACTION -- 
         RATHER THAN WAIT FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY BODIES TO CATCH 
         UP.

                          ///END ACT///

WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SANDY BERGER HAS 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT START-TWO IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN THE
DUMA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW MONTHS,  BUT THAT SUMMIT PROGRESS 
CAN BE MADE ON OTHER SECURITY ISSUES INCLUDING KOSOVO, IRAQ AND 
IMPROVED CONTROLS ON RUSSIAN WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS. (SIGNED)

NEB/DAG/JO

27-Aug-98 5:09 PM EDT (2109 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.