DATE=5/18/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40411
TITLE=RUSSIA / START TWO  
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  BORIS YELTSIN MEETS THE LEADERS OF BOTH HOUSES OF THE 
RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT THIS WEEK TO URGE PROMPT RATIFICATION OF THE 
"START-TWO" STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY. ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE 
MEETING COMES A DAY AFTER PRESIDENT CLINTON TOLD MR. YELTSIN HE 
WOULD VISIT MOSCOW ONLY AFTER THE TREATY IS APPROVED. VOA MOSCOW 
CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS MR. YELTSIN FACES A TOUGH 
TASK IN WINNING SUPPORT FOR THE ACCORD IN THE OPPOSITION- 
DOMINATED PARLIAMENT.

TEXT: THE RATIFICATION CAMPAIGN IS IN HIGH GEAR (WELL UNDERWAY). 
FIVE YEARS AFTER PRESIDENT YELTSIN AND THEN U-S PRESIDENT GEORGE 
BUSH SIGNED THE START-TWO TREATY, MR. YELTSIN IS PRESSURING THE 
DUMA, OR LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, TO APPROVE IT.

WHILE THE U-S SENATE VOTED FOR THE ACCORD IN 1996, IT HAS BEEN 
STALLED IN THE DUMA. OPPONENTS HAVE KEPT IT OFF THE AGENDA WITH A
VARIETY OF OBJECTIONS. 

LAST WEEK, A GROUP OF WELL-KNOWN CURRENT AND FORMER OFFICIALS GOT
TOGETHER IN MOSCOW TO LAY OUT THE CASE IN FAVOR OF RATIFICATION. 
RETIRED K-G-B GENERAL NIKOLAI LEONOV, NOW A HISTORY PROFESSOR, 
ARGUED THAT MILITARY FORCE HAS BECOME OBSOLETE AS AN INSTRUMENT 
OF POWER IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA.

          ///LEONOV ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO...///

HE SAYS "THERE IS  NO  MILITARY THREAT TO RUSSIA NOW BECAUSE THE 
WEST HAS OTHER WAYS OF APPLYING PRESSURE." HE SAYS ECONOMIC AND 
POLITICAL PRESSURE ARE MORE EFFECTIVE, AND ASKS "SO WHAT'S THE 
POINT OF USING FORCE?"

ANTON VASILYEV, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE FOREIGN MINISTRY'S 
SECURITY AND DISARMAMENT DEPARTMENT, SAYS START-TWO WILL ALLOW 
RUSSIA TO MAINTAIN NUCLEAR PARITY DURING A PAINFUL PERIOD OF 
ECONOMIC TRANSITION.

         ///VASILYEV ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO...///

HE SAYS "CONSIDERING RUSSIA'S CURRENT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC 
DIFFICULTIES, THE TREATY IS IMPORTANT IN MAINTAINING THE 
COUNTRY'S STATUS AS A NUCLEAR POWER EQUAL TO THE UNITED STATES."

BUT DESPITE THESE ARGUMENTS, EXPERTS SAY WINNING THE DUMA'S 
APPROVAL WILL BE DIFFICULT -- MAYBE EVEN IMPOSSIBLE. ANALYST 
BORIS  MAKARENKO OF RUSSIA'S CENTER FOR POLITICAL TECHNOLOGIES 
POINTS OUT LAWMAKERS ARE LOOKING FOR REVENGE AFTER RECENTLY BEING
FORCED TO ACCEPT PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S CANDIDATE FOR PRIME 
MINISTER.

                       ///MAKARENKO ACT///

         DUMA WAS JUST HUMILIATED BY THE WHOLE PROCEDURE OF THE 
         GOVERNMENT CRISIS AND RELUCTANCE TO APPROVE THE PRIME 
         MINISTER, SO THE DUMA WANTS TO GET BACK. THE SECOND 
         REASON IS BOTH INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL. RATIFYING THE
         START-TWO TREATY IS ONE OF VERY FEW BARGAINING CHIPS 
         AVAILABLE TO THE DUMA TO EXPRESS ITS NEGATIVE ATTITUDE 
         TOWARD NATO EXPANSION.

                          ///END ACT///

SO THE GREAT BATTLE HAS BEGUN. ON THE ONE SIDE, PRESIDENT  
YELTSIN, TRYING TO MAKE GOOD ON HIS PLEDGE TO PRESIDENT CLINTON  
TO GET START-TWO RATIFIED. ON THE OTHER SIDE, A PARLIAMENT WITH A
GRUDGE.

KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SERGEI YASTRZHEMBSKY JOINED THE FRAY MONDAY, 
TELLING REPORTERS, "IT IS  NOT  PRESIDENT YELTSIN WHO NEEDS 
START-TWO, IT IS RUSSIA THAT NEEDS IT." HE SAID THE KREMLIN IS 
READY TO ACTIVELY PROMOTE RATIFICATION WITH MEMBERS OF 
PARLIAMENT.

A DUMA COMMITTEE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD HEARINGS ON THE TREATY NEXT 
MONTH, BUT  NO  DATE HAS BEEN SET FOR RATIFICATION DEBATES.  
COMMUNISTS, THE LARGEST DUMA FACTION, SAY THE DEBATE IS UNLIKELY 
BEFORE LATE IN THE YEAR, IF AT ALL. (SIGNED)

NEB/PFH/PCF

18-May-98 12:11 PM EDT (1611 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.