DATE=  11/1/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-37960

TITLE=TEST BAN UNDER SCRUTINY

BYLINE=MAXIM KNIAZKOV

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:



INTRO: THE U-S SENATE HAS BEGUN DISCUSSING THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST

BAN TREATY SIGNED BY PRESIDENT CLINTON IN 1996.  V-O-A'S MAXIM

KNIAZKOV IN THIS REPORT EXAMINES WHAT PROMISES TO BECOME A LONG

RATIFICATION BATTLE STRETCHING WELL INTO NEXT YEAR.



TEXT: ANTICIPATING A TOUGH FIGHT, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION

SQUARED OFF FOR THE DEBATE MORE THAN A WEEK BEFORE A SENATE

SUBCOMMITTEE BEGAN EXAMINING THE TREATY IN LATE OCTOBER.



FLANKED BY TOP U-S SCIENTISTS, PRESIDENTIAL ARMS CONTROL ADVISER

ROBERT BELL APPEARED BEFORE THE PRESS TO DELIVER A PASSIONATE

DEFENSE OF THE BAN.



                     // ACT ONE BELL //



         SO IF WE INDEED ARE OUT OF THE NUCLEAR TESTING BUSINESS

         IN THE SAME WAY THAT WE DECIDED AS A NATION TO GET OUT

         OF THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS PRODUCTION BUSINESS, THEN IT

         SEEMS TO ME THAT IT IS FUNDAMENTALLY IN OUR INTEREST

         THROUGH A TREATY TO TRY TO GET AS UNIVERSAL ADHERENCE TO

         THAT NORM AS POSSIBLE. AND WE HAVE THE GOOD FORTUNE IN

         THIS CASE OF BEING JOINED SEPARATELY BY DECISIONS THAT

         ALL CAME TOGETHER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME TIMEFRAME BY

         RUSSIA, CHINA, FRANCE AND BRITAIN.



                          // END ACT //



PRESIDENT CLINTON SIGNED THE TREATY, WHICH BANS ALL NUCLEAR

EXPLOSIONS, IN SEPTEMBER OF 1996.  SINCE THEN THE ACCORD HAS BEEN

SIGNED BY 146 NATIONS, INCLUDING ALL DECLARED NUCLEAR POWERS.



THE ADMINISTRATION MAINTAINS THAT THE TEST BAN IS ESSENTIAL TO

ENSURING NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO COUNTRIES THAT

DO  NOT HAVE THEM AT THE MOMENT.



BUT OPPONENTS OF THE ACCORD SAY IT IS UNVERIFIABLE AND LACKS

PROPER ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS.  THERE IS ALSO CONCERN AMONG SOME

WEAPONS SPECIALISTS THAT WITHOUT TESTING, THEY WILL  NOT  BE ABLE

TO ADEQUATELY VERIFY THE RELIABILITY OF EXISTING ARSENALS.



FORMER SENIOR PENTAGON OFFICIAL FRANK GAFFNEY, WHO NOW HEADS

WASHINGTON'S CENTER FOR SECURITY POLICY, IS SPEARHEADING A DRIVE

TO KILL THE ACCORD.  MR. GAFFNEY SAYS HE HOPES TO SUCCEED BECAUSE

THE TREATY IS PROVOKING SKEPTICISM AMONG SOME U-S SENATORS.



                      // ACT TWO GAFFNEY //



         AT THIS POINT, I WOULD SAY THAT I THINK THERE ARE

         PROBABLY ABOUT AN EVEN NUMBER OF VOTES ON BOTH SIDES,

         WITH NEITHER SIDE HAVING SUFFICIENT VOTES TO PREVAIL.

         BUT MY FEELING IS THAT AS THE CASE AGAINST THIS TREATY

         GETS MADE OVER TIME AND AS THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY

         BE CONTINUING EVIDENCE OF, ON THE ONE HAND, VIOLATIONS

         OF THE TREATY OR PROBLEMS WITH IT, THERE WILL BE AN

         INCREASING OPPOSITION TO THIS TREATY AND THERE COULD

         WELL BE ENOUGH (VOTES) TO DEFEAT IT.



                           // END ACT //



THE ADMINISTRATION'S CASE WAS  NOT  HELPED BY A RECENT MYSTERIOUS

SEISMIC EVENT REGISTERED OFF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC ISLAND OF NOVAYA

ZEMLYA BACK.   SOME GOVERNMENT EXPERTS EXPRESSED SUSPICION THE

TREMOR LAST AUGUST MAY HAVE BEEN A SECRET RUSSIAN NUCLEAR

EXPLOSION.  AND PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ROBERT BELL ADMITTED THE

ADMINISTRATION CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY BECAUSE THE DATA

IT POSSESSES IS CONTRADICTORY.



THIS LACK OF CLARITY WAS IMMEDIATELY SEIZED UPON BY TREATY

OPPONENTS, WHO CALLED INTO QUESTION THE ADMINISTRATION'S

CONTENTION THAT THE TEST BAN IS VERIFIABLE.



BUT TEST BAN SUPPORTERS SAY WITHOUT THE ACCORD THE SITUATION

WOULD BE EVEN WORSE.   RICHARD GARWIN OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN

RELATIONS SAYS THE CRUCIAL VALUE OF THE TREATY IS IN ITS ABILITY

TO STEM NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION.



                  // ACT THREE GARWIN //



         AN INDIRECT BUT CRITICALLY IMPORTANT BENEFIT OF THE

         C-T-B-T (COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY) IS

         NON-PROLIFERATION.  BY ENDING THE TESTING AND HENCE THE

         ADVANCEMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONRY IN THE FIVE FORMAL

         NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES, THE C-T-B-T LEGITIMIZES U-S

         NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS AND LAYS THE BASIS FOR

         UNIVERSAL ENFORCEMENT OF A C-T-B-T EVEN AGAINST THE FEW

         NATIONS THAT MAY  NOT  SIGN.



                        // END ACT //



GIVEN ALL ITS COMPLEXITIES, THE TREATY IS LIKELY TO FACE A LONG

AND TEDIOUS BATTLE ON CAPITOL HILL.  TWO-THIRDS OF THE U-S SENATE

MUST BACK THE ACCORD FOR IT TO BECOME VALID.  WITH VARIOUS SENATE

SUBCOMMITTEES PORING OVER THE DOCUMENT NOW, EXPERTS DO  NOT

EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT TO THE SENATE FLOOR UNTIL EARLY NEXT YEAR.

(SIGNED)



NEB/MAX/EH















01-Nov-97 1:12 PM EST (1812 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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