DATE=10/20/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NUCLEAR TREATY-REACTION
NUMBER=5-44564
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO: Last week, the U-S Senate refused to ratify the 
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, dealing President 
Clinton a major foreign policy defeat.  In this report 
from Washington, V-O-A National Security Correspondent 
Andre de Nesnera looks at the debate surrounding the 
treaty's rejection and the possible fallout, 
especially in southern Asia.

TEXT: The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty prohibits 
nations from carrying out nuclear explosions, 
including those to test nuclear weapons. 

In 1996, President Clinton signed the treaty and said 
getting Senate ratification was one of his 
administration's top foreign policy priorities.  But 
last week, the Republican-dominated Senate rejected 
the treaty.  This was the first time the upper house 
of Congress voted down an international pact since an 
isolationist Senate rejected the 1919 Versailles 
Treaty that included rules setting up the League of 
Nations.

Opponents of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty said 
the pact was incompatible with U-S national security 
needs.  They said the United States - which has 
stopped nuclear testing since 1992 - must be able to 
test its nuclear weapons to guarantee their 
reliability.

Baker Spring - a nuclear expert with the conservative 
(Washington-based) Heritage Foundation says the treaty 
would have resulted in U-S nuclear disarmament.  And 
he says Washington must maintain its nuclear 
deterrent.

            /// SPRING ACT /// 

      The question is whether you can maintain that 
      arsenal and that deterrent absent testing.  And 
      my judgment is you cannot because like any other 
      sophisticated industrial product, nuclear 
      weapons require testing in order to assure that 
      they work.  For example: an automobile.  You are 
      going to test it periodically to make sure that 
      it works and you won't just do it by simulation.  
      You would actually start the engine and drive 
      the car and it is a similar analogy that we face 
      in a more complex context regarding nuclear 
      weapons.

            /// END ACT /// 

Those in favor of the Test Ban Treaty say nuclear 
weapons testing is  not  needed since a sophisticated 
computer simulation system can get the same results.  
And they reject the notion the treaty is unverifiable, 
saying the pact calls for creating an international 
monitoring system and on-site inspections.

To enter into force, the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty 
must be ratified by 44 states named in an annex.  
These include Britain, France and Germany that have 
already ratified, and the United States, China, 
Russia, India and Pakistan - which have not.

George Perkovich is a nuclear weapons expert and 
author of the recently published book, "India's 
Nuclear Bomb." He is afraid the Senate action may 
provoke a so-called "nuclear domino effect" - in 
essence giving some countries the green light to 
proceed with nuclear testing.  Mr. Perkovich's first 
concern is with China.

            /// PERKOVICH ACT ///

      China agreed somewhat reluctantly to go along 
      with the test ban treaty.  It has conducted 45 
      nuclear tests compared to 1,030 for the United 
      States.  China is trying to modernize its 
      nuclear arsenal.  That would be much easier - 
      and the military could do it with much greater 
      confidence - if they could still conduct nuclear 
      tests.  And in fact, the best and perhaps the 
      only way they could capitalize on the design 
      information they acquired from the United 
      States, would be to do the kind of tests that 
      the Senate has now made permissible.  And so I 
      think there would be a temptation there.  If 
      China tests, then I think it almost inevitable 
      that India would resume testing, which would 
      then lead Pakistan to respond in kind.  /// Opt 
      ///  Now from the other direction, India may 
      find itself tempted to test whether or not China 
      does, because - in part - the test ban agreement 
      which was a moral if not yet a legal restraint 
      in India: that has been waived away.  And I 
      think there are people in India who have an 
      interest, perhaps, in resuming testing. /// End 
      Opt ///

            /// END ACT /// 

In responding to the rejection of the test ban treaty, 
President Clinton said the United States will continue 
to abide by its 1992 moratorium on nuclear tests.  
Democrats say they will make the Senate rejection a 
top issue during the upcoming presidential campaign.  
And if elected president, Vice-President Al Gore says 
he will resubmit the treaty to the Senate for another 
consideration. (Signed)

NEB/ADEN/JP




20-Oct-1999 15:47 PM EDT (20-Oct-1999 1947 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.