DATE=5/19/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA / U-S (L-ONLY)
NUMBER=2-262561
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO:  President Clinton's national security adviser, 
Sandy Berger, has left Moscow after two days of talks 
with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other 
officials about arms control and other issues.  V-O-A 
Moscow Correspondent Peter Heinlein reports both 
countries are trying to downplay expectations of a 
breakthrough when President Clinton visits the Russian 
capital next month.

TEXT:  U-S national security adviser Sandy Berger 
traded pleasantries with newly-confirmed Prime 
Minister Mikhail Kasyanov Friday in front of 
television cameras at the Russian "white house" [the 
government headquarters in Moscow].  A day earlier, 
Mr. Berger posed for similar pictures at the Kremlin 
with President Vladimir Putin.

Everything was smiles and handshakes.  But behind the 
scenes, Mr. Berger has been doing some hard bargaining 
in hopes of resolving huge disagreements about the 
size of both countries' nuclear arsenals and U-S plans 
to build a limited missile defense system.

A breakthrough is clearly what Presidents Clinton and 
Putin are hoping for when they hold their first summit 
next month in Moscow.  But the gap between the U-S and 
Russian positions is said to be substantial.  Even as 
Mr. Berger thrashed out the details, officials in 
Washington and Moscow were busy trying to downplay 
expectations for the summit.

A senior U-S defense department official was quoted in 
Friday's Washington Post (newspaper) as saying neither 
country is "in a position to put grand compromises on 
the table, so both sides will be happy to come away 
with some kind of a process for further talks in the 
future." 

Russia's influential Kommersant newspaper Friday 
reported  no  progress has been made on the missile-
defense-system issue.  The newspaper notes that Russia 
steadfastly opposes the Clinton administration's 
missile defense plan, saying it would undermine the 
1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty.  

But independent defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer says 
despite the cautious predictions, there still is a 
fair chance of significant progress on arms control, 
if only because both presidents want it.

               ///  FELGENHAUER ACT  ///

      There's a political desire, from both 
      presidents, mostly, to pull off some kind of a 
      breakthrough in arms control.  There's a 
      reluctance at lower levels and opposition in 
      both systems to reach a grand compromise, so I 
      would say roughly the chance of a breakthrough 
      on arms control is about 50-50.

                ///  END ACT  ///

U-S officials in Moscow agree with the 50-50 
assessment.  With only two weeks to go before 
President Clinton's arrival on June 3rd, they say 
negotiations on critical arms-control issues could 
still go either way.

There will be some announcement of arms control 
progress at the summit, but just how much is an open 
question.

One senior U-S official says much will depend on the 
way talks go when Deputy Secretary State Strobe 
Talbott arrives next week to follow up on national 
security adviser Berger's talks.   (Signed)

NEB/PFH/JWH/WTW



19-May-2000 10:33 AM EDT (19-May-2000 1433 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.