16 February 2000
(Views 2000 as time for consolidating gains of recent years) (830) By Ralph Dannheisser Washington File Congressional Correspondent Washington -- The Clinton administration is realistic about the limits on what it can accomplish in its final year in office, but still plans to push some major arms control efforts, a State Department official dealing with that issue says. Avis Bohlen, assistant secretary of state for arms control, told a dinner meeting of Women in International Security February 15 that efforts at building support for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) -- turned down once by the Senate -- and work toward a presidential decision on deploying a National Missile Defense (NMD) system rank highest on the list of priorities. That makes for "not a very exciting agenda" of new initiatives, "but rather a lot that needs to be consolidated," Bohlen said. "We've bitten off an awful lot in the past couple of years, and I think we have not yet digested it." The arms control official termed the Senate's rejection of CTBT last October "a very sobering experience" that dealt a sharp setback to the administration's goal of achieving "a complete, comprehensive test ban." Noting that the vote marked the first time that the Senate had rejected a major international accord since the Treaty of Versailles after World War I, she said it reflected "a lack of national consensus on the goals of the treaty." "It is essential in this country to have a bipartisan consensus if we are to move ahead on arms control," Bohlen said. But, "On this (CTBT) issue, at least, the tradition of bipartisanship in foreign policy has really been very badly eroded," she observed. Bohlen conceded that, in the current climate, there is "very little likelihood" that the CTBT will be brought to another Senate vote this year. But, she said, administration officials will mount an effort to correct "misconceptions" that led to the earlier Senate defeat, and attempt to develop "a quiet dialogue" with moderates in both parties that could set the stage for eventual approval. She expressed optimism that a newly organized task force, led by General John Shalikashvili, will be able to help the process along by correcting senators' "misperceptions" of the treaty's impact in the course of such a dialogue, convincing skeptics that its adoption will not endanger U.S. security. Bohlen described as "the other burning issue of the day" the complex of factors related to President Clinton's upcoming decision on whether to deploy a limited NMD system. "Here we're trying to find a balance between deterrence, defense, and arms control -- a kind of tripod if you want -- that can command bipartisan support on the issues of National Missile Defense, the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty, and continuation of the START arms reduction process," Bohlen said. Citing "a growing threat to the United States from the ballistic missile capabilities" of potentially hostile countries -- she listed North Korea, "probably" Iran and "possibly" Iraq -- Bohlen said that Clinton would make a deployment decision "not earlier than this summer," based on four criteria: "Our assessment of the threat at that time; the technological feasibility of the system; the cost; and a range of national security considerations which include the impact on arms control" as well as on U.S. relations with Russia, China, and European and Pacific allies. Bohlen stressed that any system Clinton might approve would be far more limited than the Strategic Defense Initiative envisioned by former President Reagan. "We're not talking SDI here. This is a very limited system," she said. Still, she acknowledged, it would be inconsistent with the existing Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and so require continued negotiations with the Russians aimed at persuading them to accept some modifications to the treaty. "This administration is not prepared simply to go ahead with NMD and abandon the ABM Treaty," she said. Bohlen said that the Russian decision to advance national elections from June to March is a positive development, since it "gives us a larger window of opportunity for negotiations" with the newly elected Russian leadership before Clinton makes his deployment decision. She noted that the administration has learned from the unsuccessful effort to gain approval of the CTBT that "we must consult closely and at early stages with the Senate" on NMD. The arms control official listed several other issues expected to receive consideration over the next year. Among them: the adapted treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe recently signed in Istanbul -- whose limits, she charged, Russia is exceeding in Chechnya, thereby delaying its presentation to the Senate for the required consent; implementation of the Chemical Weapons Convention; and what she termed "a great deal of work to be done" on a protocol to the Biological Weapons Convention. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: usinfo.state.gov)